Monday, November 25, 2013

Yahoo hires Katie Couric as 'global anchor'

Will Katie Couric hire help save Yahoo?   Will Katie Couric hire help save Yahoo? NEW YORK (CNNMoney) Yahoo has added yet another media star to its ranks: Katie Couric will join Yahoo early next year as its "global anchor."

CEO Marissa Mayer confirmed Couric's hiring in a Tumblr post on Monday. The post didn't go into great detail about what Couric's role will entail, but she will be "the face of Yahoo News and [shoot] features for our homepage," Mayer wrote. Yahoo recently purchased Tumblr for $1.1 billion.

The Yahoo (YHOO, Fortune 500) deal appears to end the news role that Couric held at ABC News -- but she will continue to host her ABC daytime talk show, "Katie," which debuted in September 2012 and was renewed for a second season at the beginning of this year.

The Hollywood Reporter posted an article on Friday saying Couric would host "a newsmaker interview program" to air on Yahoo's homepage. Tech blog AllThingsD first reported that Couric would be named "global news anchor."

Couric brings a ton of star power to Yahoo, as Mayer appears to be on a quest for big-name media talent.

Related story: Marissa Mayer hasn't saved Yahoo yet

Just last month, Yahoo announced it had poached longtime New York Times tech columnist David Pogue to head up its own consumer-tech coverage. Yahoo also recently hired former New York Times editor Megan Liberman to become the Yahoo News editor-in-chief, and New York Times Magazine's political correspondent Matt Bai as Yahoo News' national political columnist.

Marissa: My 3 biggest decisions   Marissa: My 3 biggest decisions

In addition to th! e recent media bent, Mayer has also focused on video as a major pillar of Yahoo's content. A homepage news show from Couric would certainly fit into that philosophy.

S&P Capital IQ analyst Scott Kessler said in a note to clients Monday that he thinks it makes sense for Yahoo to hire established media personalities like Couric in order to grab more traffic and attract advertisers.

But, Kessler noted, details about specific coverage plans for Couric remain scant -- as well as how much cash Yahoo had to shell out to get her.

Couric has worked as an anchor, host or news correspondent at most of the major broadcasters: Comcast (CMCSA, Fortune 500)-owned NBC, CBS (CBS, Fortune 500) and Walt Disney's (DIS, Fortune 500) ABC. While at CBS, she became the first woman to be the solo anchor of an evening news program.

The jump from ABC News to Yahoo isn't a giant leap for Couric: The two companies inked a news partnership back in 2011, and Couric's web show "Katie's Take" appears on both companies' sites.

- CNN's Rachel Wells contributed reporting. To top of page

Sunday, November 24, 2013

Retirement Plan Participants Willing to Accept Restrictions

Retirement plan sponsors and consultants up on the latest ideas about best practices in defined contribution (DC) plans may have support for plan design reform from an unexpected source: plan participants themselves.

The notion that the two groups are not far apart on some innovative retirement plan changes is borne out in a new survey of 1,000 current or past participants in a 401(k) plan carried out by Greenwich Associates on behalf of Northern Trust, which administers some $222 billion in DC assets.

The study, “The Path Forward: The Ideal DC Plan May Be Closer Than You Think,” is part of an annual research series that normally takes account of expert opinion — the views of plan sponsors or consultants. The current study, however, looks at plan design from the public’s perspective.

"This year, we hit the pause key on soliciting plan sponsor feedback, to find out where participants concur — and differ — with those who are responsible for designing and overseeing their DC retirement programs," said Jim Danaher, managing director of defined contribution solutions at Northern Trust, in a news release.

"The results are encouraging, because they indicate that participants would accept limits on longstanding DC plan features such as daily liquidity or taking loans if the reforms could lead to improved savings rates, investment returns and retirement outcomes,” Danaher continued.

Indeed, best practices that might foster greater focus on the long term may not be an area of disagreement between plan sponsors and participants. The study says that plan participant behavior may belie the belief that plan participants want the ability to make daily portfolio changes.

The survey found that while a majority — 56% of participants — say the ability to change their investment mix is important, a far larger percentage, 91%, say they would be willing to sacrifice daily access to their account if doing so would offer greater return potential.

“What participants do supports what they say: many participants do not access their accounts regularly despite having daily access,” the report states. It adds that 51% of those surveyed hadn’t changed their investment mix for at least 2 months, “including many who haven’t made a change in two or three years.”

The Northern Trust report advocates that plan sponsors consider “premixed portfolios with less liquid investments that have greater long-term return potential,” saying that since investment managers don’t necessarily make daily changes in their investment mix, “why enable participants to change investments daily?”

Reached for clarification by ThinkAdvisor, Danaher had alternative investments in mind as examples of less liquid investments with increased return potential, specifying “strategies such as hedge funds or private equity that have typically been used in defined benefit plans.”

A second significant plan design change involves the issue of leakage of retirement assets prior to retirement. Northern Trust says 91% of plan sponsors allow participants to take loans, assuming access to these funds is a condition of their participation in DC plans.

Yet the survey finds that 76% of participants have never taken a loan, 57% think only emergency expenses could justify such loans and only 13% consider taking a future loan. If, the report asks, participant borrowing has not dramatically increased even in hard economic times, why make 401(k) loans so easily available?

Northern Trust suggests that restricting such loans to financial hardship and limiting access to employee contributions alone (and not to employer contributions) will prevent leakage of assets needed for retirement and further narrow the distance between expert and mass opinion.

Other key areas where plan sponsors and participants are closer than one might have thought include investment selection and rollovers.

On the former, a majority of participants have no objection to being automatically re-enrolled (unless they opt-out) into a target-date fund from their current investment selection. Last year’s survey showed that plan sponsors and consultants viewed premixed default options as a best practice for DC plans.

Best Growth Stocks To Own For 2014

As to rollovers, the survey found that 51% of employees either rolled over their assets to a new employer’s 401(k) plan or kept it in the old plan (vs. the 24% rolling over to an IRA, which may lack “fiduciary oversight and institutional pricing”).

The willingness of plan participants to remain in 401(k)s, with some leakage of assets to IRAs, may mirror ambivalence among plan sponsors, who last year’s survey showed have fiduciary liability concerns about keeping the assets after an employee leaves.

Northern Trust casts its lot with those favoring keeping the assets, and advocates counseling that would encourage “new hires to roll over their savings to, and participants who are leaving to keep their balances in, the plan.”

The reason, Danaher says, is “the likelihood that participants will pay lower investment management fees through an institutional 401(k) than a retail-based rollover IRA."

Danaher says his firm’s research is intended to aid clients of the Chicago-based firm:

"While Northern Trust does not administer defined contribution plans in the same sense as those firms who provide participant-level recordkeeping services, as a DC investment-only provider we continually advocate for plan design best-practice elements that we believe have the potential to produce better financial outcomes for participants at retirement,” he says.

---

Check out 4 Big Changes to 401(k)s, IRAs in Obama’s 2014 Budget on ThinkAdvisor.

Saturday, November 23, 2013

Forest Laboratories, Inc. (FRX): Key Reasons Why Forest Won't Slim Down

Investors of Forest Laboratories, Inc. (NYSE: FRX) is banking on the prospect that Forest, under its newly anointed CEO, will simply become more specialized, shedding salesforce expenses along the way.

However, when one looks deeply into where Forest is getting its prescriptions and sales, they could see that is not likely to happen. If you are a drug company that markets drugs that address a large physician group, such as family practitioners or internists, then you have to field a large salesforce to reach physicians.

"Forest is among the most dependent on primary care sales of all drug companies, and so shedding salespeople would affect sales and shedding brands would not free up resources," BMO Capital Markets analyst David Maris wrote in a note to clients.

For Forest, 69.5 percent of its prescriptions come from the Primary Care area, the second-highest percentage overall and significantly higher than the percentages for all of its Specialty Pharma peers and next only to Merck (NYSE:MRK)., whose PCP rate is 75 percent

Many drugs that sound like a specialty sales call, like an asthma drug or a depression drug or even an Alzheimer's treatment drug like Namenda, actually get more than 50 percent of their sales and prescriptions from primary care physicians (PCPs).

"It is clear that even with recent launches, Forest is dependent on its large primary care salesforce, as more than 50% of prescriptions are coming from PCPs for each," Maris said.

It seems unlikely for a company to shrink salesforce when more than half its prescriptions and sales for lead products are coming from Primary Care. If Forest was to shed any part of its primary care salesforce, it would likely have a directly negative effect on overall sales of the product.

In addition, the idea of divesting some products to allow Forest to become more Specialty and less dependent on a PCP salesforce seems not to make any sense as the dependence on PCP sales is broad based across Forest's entire product ! line.

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"Forest has the need for a PCP salesforce because all of its products – even the respiratory and GI products that many analysts call "Specialty" – get more than 50% of their prescriptions from PCPs," Maris said.

This clearly shows that Forest is a specialty pharma company by size only – its salesforce and product base is not specialty focused, and Forest has problems that large pharma often faces – the need to feed an expensively large, broad-based, and geographically diverse salesforce.

Forest is not in a good position to become specialized without drastically reducing sales. It is more likely that Forest would look to buy its way out of its problems, whether through in-licensing, acquisitions, or mergers.

"Some bulls might see this PCP problem and say it is yet more evidence that Forest might not have any avenue by which to streamline, but it would provide another large drug company with a lot of cost cutting opportunities," Maris wrote.

However, there are not any potential partners that want to acquire Forest given its pipeline is largely spoken for and already launched, and it faces the loss of patent protection on its largest product in April 2015.

"Instead of a focused Specialty company, we think Forest will spend much of its cash hoard to become larger, therapeutically, and geographically sprawling, to help blunt the trauma of the Namenda and Namenda SR generics," Maris noted.

Investors in the stock expect the new CEO to alter course dramatically and cut the company down to a smaller, more focused company – as Icahn and several analyst have suggested, but any refocusing would result in substantially lower revenues and earnings.

When cutting and refocusing doesn't turn out to be the game plan, and spending and acquiring become the game plan, then the recent rise in the shares - on the promise of n! ew manage! ment streamlining the company - will reverse.

Monday, November 18, 2013

How to Get a Saver to Spend

We all have our money personalities. For example, from the time my sister and I were first able to babysit, she would take her pay and go shopping, and I would put mine in the bank. It's not that I was making some great sacrifice. It's just that I couldn't think of anything I wanted more than the sense of security that came with knowing I had cash saved for dealing with any possible situation. As I got older, my idea of luxury was having the wherewithal to make work optional. My Practical Investing portfolio is the result of that thrift.

See Also: 30 Smart Ways to Spend $1,000

Savers and spenders face different financial-planning challenges. Spenders have to rein in the urge to splurge in order to save for future goals. We savers, by contrast, have to be persuaded that it's okay to spend at some point. One planner laughingly told me that he had to nag a retired client who was worth millions to buy a new car and take vacations because the man didn't want to spend more than he collected from his pension and Social Security. "Can you believe it?" the planner asked. Actually, I could.

Spending more than I earn pushes me out of my comfort zone. Yet possessing money means not only figuring out how to invest it but also considering how to use it to improve our lives and those of the people around us.

What about leaving your children an inheritance? I want to help my kids long before I die. I think it would be a horribly wasted opportunity if I didn't help them buy a house or take wonderful vacations (with me, I hope) when they're young and struggling, only to leave them a wad of cash when they're older and well established.

But how do you get a saver to spend? For me, it's a two-step process. First, I make sure that I have enough to handle every contingency I can imagine, from the short-term demands of paying for a wedding or a new car to the possibility of a serious illness. And because those contingencies include retirement, I usually start by using a Web-based retirement calculator.

This calculator will tell you how much you need to save each month to meet your retirement goal. Is it less than you're currently saving? If so, the difference between what you're saving and what you need to save is the amount you can safely spend each month from now until retirement without jeopardizing your future.

Of course, the further you are from retirement, the more speculative the calculation, so be conservative. And, naturally, do annual check-ups to make sure you're not going overboard on your spending. But let's say you could spend $1,000 or $20,000 a year more than you are now. What could you do with that money?

Spread the Wealth

Everyone will answer that question differently. A few years ago, my parents took our whole family—11 of us, in all—to Europe for their 50th anniversary. It's a trip we'll never forget. A friend's mom started sending her grandchildren, who are in college and living on tight budgets, a few hundred dollars now and then. She was rewarded with long, cheerful phone calls, during which the grandkids gushed about what they did with the unexpected cash.

Those who have bigger stockpiles might decide to help their kids, grandkids, nieces or nephews buy homes, or help them pay college bills or student loans. Or perhaps you'll want to increase your contributions to charity. How you use your extra money will likely be a function of how much you've got and the rich and complex dynamics of your life.

The important thing to remember is that money is a tool. Don't forget to use it.

Kathy Kristof is the author of the book Investing 101.



Saturday, November 16, 2013

Corvette named Automobile of the Year

Inside the brand new Corvette Stingray   Inside the brand new Corvette Stingray NEW YORK (CNNMoney) Automobile Magazine on Saturday named the 2014 Chevrolet Corvette Stingray its "Automobile of the Year."

The new Corvette has more power and better fuel economy than last year's model. It's powered by a 6.2-liter V8 engine that can put out as much as 460 horsepower but that can also get 29 miles per gallon in highway cruising.

"The Corvette has long been a tremendous performance value wrapped in an all-American package," the magazine says in its review of the car. "Now, however, with new-found sophistication and user-friendliness, the [new Corvette] should melt the barriers that have kept away so many driving enthusiasts."

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Automobile magazine editor-in-chief Jean Jennings lauded the Corvette's overall design, performance, quality and comfort.

"The automobile of the year has to set a standard," she said. "It has to break a category in a way that really excites us," she said.

The new Corvette should finally repair the image that Corvette has had for years as a car that only appealed to those seeking a flashy look, not real performance and sophistication.

The new car's interior, in particular, is a break from Corvettes of the past, which, even when they offered serious performance, were disappointingly cheap, she said.

In CNNMoney's own test drive of the new Corvette, we found it be a huge improvement over an already very credible sports car. The new interior has a much nicer design and higher quality than the outgoing model, while the car feels quicker, better balanced and more intuitive to drive.

Prices for the base Stingray start at just under $52,000.

Quiz: Which car is faster?

To be eligible for the award, a car must be completely or substantially new for the new model year. This is the second major award for General Motors (GM, Fortune 500) in recent weeks. The Cadillac CTS was named Motor Trend's Car of the Year earlier this month. Motor Trend and Automobile Magazine are both owned by Source Interlink, but the two magazines operate independently.

At the same time that it announced the award for the Corvette, Automobile announced that it was naming Tadge Juechter, lead engineer on the Corvette, as its Man of the Year. To top of page

Friday, November 15, 2013

Why You Should Buy Hedge Funds' 5 Favorite Stocks

BALTIMORE (Stockpickr) – Tick. Tick. Tick. Hear that? It's time slipping away between now and the end of 2013.

If you're a hedge fund manager, that's a very worrying sound. After all, with the S&P 500 up 25% since the start of the year after yesterday's record high close, performance expectations are high this year. And for the funds that were underexposed to stocks to start the year, that presents a real gap that needs to be filled before the calendar flips over to January again.

That's not just the case for a few select fund managers; as a group, hedge funds were underweight stocks coming into the year, and many bet on a down move in the S&P back in June. That means that there's lots of money in search of returns for the final months of the year.

And some stocks are attracting more hedge fund dollars than others this quarter...

So today, we'll take a look at the five stocks that hedge funds love the most right now. To do that, we're focusing on 13F filings.

Institutional investors with more than $100 million in assets are required to file a 13F -- a form that breaks down their stock positions for public consumption. From hedge funds to mutual funds to insurance companies, any professional investors who manage more than that $100 million watermark are required to file a 13F.

In total, approximately 3,400 firms file 13F forms each quarter, and by comparing one quarter's filing to another, we can see how any single fund manager is moving their portfolio around. While the data is generally delayed by about a quarter, that's not necessarily a bad thing – research shows that applying a lag to institutional holdings can generate positive alpha in some cases. That's all the more reason to crack open the moves being made with hedge funds $300 billion under management.

Today, we'll focus on hedge funds' 5 favorite stocks from the last quarter...

Facebook

I've made no secret that I'm not a fan of Facebook's (FB) stock. Hedge fund managers don't have the same concerns right now – they picked up 5.35 million shares in the last quarter, boosting their positions in the social network by 50%. That means that hedge funds are making a $790 million bet on Facebook right now.

I'll concede that some things have changed. The technicals have made a complete about-face since I last talked about FB, and the fundamentals are... well, not horrific. But FB still has to do a lot in order to grow into its valuation. Until that happens, the firm has size on its side -- Facebook is the incumbent social networking site, drawing more time from users than any other destination on the web. The personal information on Facebook's servers is extremely valuable, and FB is using it to drive targeted ads. But Facebook needs to generate more revenues by adding value to the user experience, not detracting it with advertising that's only marginally relevant to what they're doing on the site.

Online gaming has been a perfect example of the direction that Facebook should be moving in, even if it makes some analysts nervous. Marketing intelligence is another. An abundance of net cash on its balance sheet gives FB the dry powder to invest in taking its business a step further. Even though hedge funds bought more shares of Facebook than any other name this past quarter, I'm still skeptical.

 

Apple

On the other hand, I am a fan of Apple (AAPL). I own it too. And so do hedge funds apparently -- funds picked up 119,000 shares of the tech giant in the latest quarter, raising their total bet on Apple to $2.39 billion.

Apple has spent most of 2013 as a hated stock. While the S&P 500 has absolutely rocketed this year, its biggest component has managed to slip around 2% year-to-date. Yes, ouch.

But the hate is very overblown -- despite all of the competition and risk, Apple remains a cash cow. Apple's margins are, by far, the biggest in the industry, and while the firm has ceded market share in order to keep margins, that decision has helped the firm hang onto the most lucrative segment of customers. iOS users spend more time on their devices than owners of other devices, and they spend more on apps too. With numbers in for the iPhone 5s and 5c, it's clear that the naysayers were wrong – and early on, the newest iterations of the iPad are moving fast for the holiday season.

Considering the dominance of the iOS products, the Macintosh has been on most analysts' back burners for years now. But that could change thanks to a new Mac Pro offering set to launch next month and refreshed MacBook Pros. The halo effect is still keeping consumers in the Apple ecosystem, and Apple's recently announced policy of free software updates should help spur more Mac-buying in the year ahead. With a mountain of cash on the books, Apple looks cheap right now.

General Motors

It's been a great year for carmakers, and that's shining through in shares of General Motors (GM) -- since the first trading session of the year, GM's shares have climbed more than 33%. Hedge fund managers must think that it'll keep on driving higher; that's why funds picked up 7.69 million shares of the Detroit automaker, ratcheting their position to $1.21 billion.

General Motors has had a tumultuous five years. The firm emerged from bankruptcy in 2009, after shedding a handful of unfruitful brands, unloading debt, and renegotiating union contracts. Worldwide, GM now operates 11 brands -- Chevrolet, Cadillac, GMC, and Buick are the survivors here in the U.S. Along with cost cutting, GM has found big success in ramping up build quality, churning out cars that consumers actually want to own again.

The end result has been profitability – record profitability, in fact. The firm's breakeven points are drastically lower after slashing hourly labor costs by more than two-thirds, and that means that GM can realistically compete with imports (including those assembled here in the U.S.) again. Even though GM is certainly an American icon, some of its biggest growth opportunities are coming from abroad right now. In fact, nearly 70% of GM vehicles are sold outside of North America today, with a huge share coming from emerging-market countries such as China and Brazil.

Now, with a combination of bullish technical and fundamental factors in play, General Motors' upside trajectory should carry on into the new year.

Williams Partners

You'd be forgiven for thinking that natural gas pipeline owner Williams Partners (WPZ) is a commodity-driven stock. It certainly seems like one at first glance. But while this master limited partnership owns one of the largest midstream natural gas operations in the country, it's not a commodity-driven play. It's an income play.

Williams owns one of the largest pipeline networks in the country, transporting natgas in huge volumes. It also operates a huge midstream operation that gathers and processes natgas with a focus on the lucrative Marcellus shale. But more than three-quarters of WPZ's cash comes from fee-based sources that aren't subject to swings in commodity prices (the firm makes most of its money by charging customers to transport their gas). That, and the tax advantages of a MLP, mean that this stock was basically purpose-built for building income. And a huge 7.05% dividend yield proves it.

After spending several years in acquisition mode, Williams owns a mature portfolio of assets that should continue to pay off in the years to come. Hedge funds made a big bet on WPZ, buying up 6.22 million shares in the most recent quarter. Collectively, that entitles funds to a $62 million dividend payout in the year ahead.

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Starwood Property Trust

Clearly, hedge fund managers have income generation on their minds right now. That's the only explanation for their stakes in another super-high yield name this quarter: Starwood Property Trust (STWD). Funds picked up 13.5 million shares of the commercial mortgage REIT, mounting up a $504 million stake. Currently, STWD pays out a 7.07% yield.

Starwood invests in mortgage debt, earning the spread between their cost of capital (through either debt or equity offerings) and what they're able to collect from borrowers. The real secret to the mortgage REIT model is leverage; by taking on relatively low-risk assets (like agency backed securities), STWD can lever up its balance sheet dramatically without ramping up risk nearly as much. That's how the firm can pay out such a large yield to its investors.

As a real estate investment trust, STWD pays out around 90% of its income directly to shareholders without being subjected to corporate income taxes -- that makes it a purpose-built income-generation machine. A recently announced plan to spin off its residential landlord unit into a new publicly traded REIT called Starwood Waypoint Residential Trust. The move should unlock some extra value for shareholders, especially in the accommodative REIT IPO market we're seeing this year.

If you're looking for income exposure right now, you could do a lot worse than to follow hedge funds into STWD.

To see these stocks in action, check out the Winter 2013 Institutional Buys portfolio on Stockpickr.



-- Written by Jonas Elmerraji in Baltimore.

RELATED LINKS:

 

>>4 Stocks Under $10 Moving Higher

 

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Follow Stockpickr on Twitter and become a fan on Facebook.

At the time of publication, author was long AAPL.

 


Thursday, November 14, 2013

Alternative ETFs and Risk-Adjusted Performance

NEW YORK (ETF Expert) -- In this commentary, I am choosing to look at some alternative asset exchange-traded funds. They are often misunderstood, rarely discussed in detail and they may go the furthest toward reducing overall portfolio risk.

If the "fit hits the shan" the way it did in the financial collapse of 2008, then most asset classes (e.g., most stock types, most bond types, most REITs, most currencies, most commodities, etc.) could depreciate significantly. Alternative assets may or may not do much better, but when it comes to a world where the Fed is likely to remain exceptionally accommodative, "alt assets" are worthy of discussion.

Here are three exchange-traded investments for tapping into a world of alternative possibilities:

1. ETRACS Wells Fargo Business Development Company Index Note (BDCS). Business Development Companies (BDCs) are similar to venture capitalists and private equity firms. In particular, there are roughly 30 or more publicly traded corporations that engage in lending at high yield rates to smaller up-n-comers; BDCs often garner equity stakes as well. The Securities and Exchange Commission requires these BDCs to invest 70% of assets in U.S. companies, while distributing a minimum of 90% of taxable income in the form of dividends. Those distributions often lead to annual yields in the 7%-9% range for shareholders. Not surprisingly, there are exchange-traded vehicles for BDCs. The unleveraged ETN from UBS E-TRACS, ticker symbol BDCS, is a means for accessing the alternative asset class. Capital appreciation may be a little light in 2013, though the 7% annualized yield is a nice offset; rising interest rates in the May-June period did not hurt BDCS more than the market at large. Moreover, the 50-day moving average has remained above the 200-day moving average since early in 2012. Courtesy of StockCharts.com 2. ProShares Large Cap Core Plus (CSM). Before fees and expenses, CSM pursues the results of Credit Suisse's 130/30 Large Cap Index. The 130/30 paradigm has become increasingly popular in the alternative arena, where an index has total long exposure of 130% and total short exposure of 30%. In this vehicle, the 500 largest stocks comprise the universe where a rules-based ranking system determines which companies will make up the "long" and which will make up the "short."

However, there is very little discernible performance difference or price direction when compared to the S&P 500 SPDR Trust (SPY). Both have three-year total returns of roughly 58%; both move in the same direction 99 times out of 100. The advocates of 130/30 strategies swear by the approach's ability to deliver excess returns for less risk, but the evidence is pretty slim... at least in the passive world of ETF indexing.

3. Credit Suisse Merger Arbitrage Index ETN (CSMA). In merger arbitrage, one is pursuing the spread between the stock price of a target company after the public announcement of its proposed acquisition and the price offered by the acquirer to pay for the targeted company's shares. If a deal goes through as anticipated, gains are probable. If a deal fails to materialize, losses may occur.

Compared to the previous "alt" assets, CSMA provides the least annualized volatility and the lowest correlation with the S&P 500 with a coefficient of 0.39. In the same vein, however, the investment may not provide much of anything of value. Over the previous three years, the profits are frighteningly slim.

For the most part, alternative ETFs may not be alternative enough. And when they are, they may not provide enough value to warrant their inclusion. That means the majority of ETF enthusiasts should stick with mainstream offerings tied to stocks, bonds, REITs and commodities. Moreover, since few of the primary asset classes will hold up in a systemic shock, you'll need to actively manage the downside risk with an approach to lowering your overall exposure. Follow @etfexpert This article was written by an independent contributor, separate from TheStreet's regular news coverage.

Disclosure Statement: ETF Expert is a website that makes the world of ETFs easier to understand. Gary Gordon, Pacific Park Financial and/or its clients may hold positions in ETFs, mutual funds and investment assets mentioned. The commentary does not constitute individualized investment advice. The opinions offered are not personalized recommendations to buy, sell or hold securities. At times, issuers of exchange-traded products compensate Pacific Park Financial or its subsidiaries for advertising at the ETF Expert website. ETF Expert content is created independently of any advertising relationships. You may review additional ETF Expert at the site. Gary Gordon reads: Real Clear Markets Jeff Miller indexuniverse Charles Kirk On Twitter, Gary Gordon follows: Jonathan Hoenig Doug Kass Hard Assets Investor

Wednesday, November 13, 2013

7 Biotechnology Stocks to Buy Now

RSS Logo Portfolio Grader Popular Posts: 6 Biotechnology Stocks to Buy Now5 Oil and Gas Stocks to Buy Now9 Biotechnology Stocks to Sell Now Recent Posts: 10 Best “Strong Buy” Stocks — CSGP TYL PCYC and more 5 Stocks With Bad Earnings Momentum — FNBN NAV SGK LGCY VNR 22 Commercial Banking Stocks to Buy Now View All Posts

This week, seven Biotechnology stocks are improving their overall rating on Portfolio Grader. Each of these rates an “A” (“strong buy”) or “B” overall (“buy”).

Inovio Pharmaceuticals, Inc.’s (AMEX:) grade is moving up to a B (“buy”) this week from last week’s C (“hold”). Inovio Biomedical Corporation is a Delaware corporation, organized in 2001. The Company is engaged in the development of preventive and therapeutic DNA vaccines for cancers and infectious diseases using its novel electroporation DNA delivery technology. Electroporation uses brief, controlled electrical pulses to increase cellular uptake of useful biopharmaceuticals. In Portfolio Grader’s specific subcategory of Sales Growth, INO also gets an A. .

This week, ARIAD Pharmaceuticals, Inc.’s (NASDAQ:) ratings are up from a C last week to a B. ARIAD Pharmaceuticals is an oncology company that focuses on the discovery, development, and commercialization of medicines for cancer patients. .

Neurocrine Biosciences, Inc. (NASDAQ:) improves from a C to a B rating this week. Neurocrine Biosciences is focused on the discovery and development of therapeutics for neuropsychiatric, neuroinflammatory, and neurodegenerative diseases and disorders. .

Array BioPharma (NASDAQ:) earns a B this week, jumping up from last week’s grade of C. Array BioPharma is a biopharmaceutical company focused on the discovery, development and commercialization of targeted small molecule drugs to treat patients afflicted with cancer, inflammatory and metabolic diseases. .

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This week, Celldex Therapeutics, Inc. (NASDAQ:) is showing good progress as the company’s rating jumps from a B (“buy”) last week to an A (“strong buy”). Celldex Therapeutics is engaged in the discovery, development and commercialization of products that harness the human immune system to prevent and treat disease. .

Insmed Incorporated (NASDAQ:) improves from a C to a B rating this week. Insmed develops and commercializes drugs that treat metabolic diseases, endocrine disorders and oncology. .

This week, BioCryst Pharmaceuticals, Inc. (NASDAQ:) pushes up from a C to a B rating. BioCryst Pharmaceuticals is a biotechnology company that designs, optimizes and develops novel drugs that block key enzymes involved in cancer, viral infections and autoimmune diseases. .

Louis Navellier’s proprietary Portfolio Grader stock ranking system assesses roughly 5,000 companies every week based on a number of fundamental and quantitative measures. Stocks are given a letter grade based on their results — with A being “strong buy,” and F being “strong sell.” Explore the tool here.

Tuesday, November 12, 2013

Motley Fool: Is Amazon cool or uncool?

Some companies, like Apple, Nike, and Disney, are well-liked by their customers. Other companies, like Wal-Mart, Microsoft, and Goldman Sachs, tend to be feared.

This is the view of Amazon.com (NASDAQ: AMZN ) CEO Jeff Bezos, as laid out in an internal memo titled Amazon.love. The memo is discussed in detail in The Everything Store, the outstanding new book about Bezos and Amazon by Brad Stone. Stone describes the memo as laying out a vision for "how the Amazon founder wants his company to conduct itself and be perceived by the world."

In order to develop a strategy for this vision, Bezos actually made a list of cool and uncool attributes of companies, which is included in the memo. Here are some of them:

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Rudeness is not cool.

Young is cool.

Winning is cool.

Defeating tiny guys is not cool.

Explorers are cool.

Conquerors are not cool.

According to Stone, Bezos believes that being seen as "an explorer rather than a conqueror, was critically important." In the memo, Bezos writes, "It is not enough to be inventive – that pioneering spirit must also come across and be perceivable by the customer base." Bezos concluded the Amazon.love memo by proposing to "assign a more thorough analysis of this topic to a thoughtful VP."

How should investors view Bezos' attempt to improve the world's perception of Amazon?

If you have to ask...

First of all, it's probably not an attribute of cool companies to put together an exhaustive analysis of what is required for being cool. And Jeff Bezos, who remains a devoted Star Trek fan, might not be an expert on this particular subject. As a Civil War buff myself, I'm not exactly casting stones here, however.

All kidding aside, I wonder if studying the attributes of cool companies is the wrong way to approach this problem. Amazon has obviously received a lot of cr! iticism over the years for its treatment of partners, competitors, and state and local governments. Rather than worrying about perception, it might make sense to devote more attention to better understanding this criticism.

Amazon might even discover that focusing overwhelmingly on the well-being of the customer ends up hurting its reputation with other stakeholders. Is the price of that reputational harm too high over the long term? So far, it doesn't appear to be. That could change, however.

Required reading

Amazon's leadership team would be wise to study Stone's book, in my opinion. We know, of course, that Bezos's wife, Mackenzie Bezos, has read it. Despite her negative review, I think there's a lot of material here for the firm to consider.

Stone is quite fair in discussing the various instances where Amazon didn't treat its competitors or partners particularly well. For example, Stone makes a persuasive case that Amazon was too ruthless in its acquisition of Quidsi, which operates Diapers.com, among several other websites. The Federal Trade Commission actually examined the deal, which raised a number of red flags, for four and half months, according to Stone. The deal was approved in the end.

There are numerous other examples of aggressive competition and questionable practices throughout Stone's book. The discussion of Amazon's treatment of publishers and book stores is particularly troubling, even if everyone is already familiar with the broad outlines of the story.

Digital books have completely disrupted the publishing industry, and that huge trend has naturally resulted in winners and losers. After reading Stone's account, it feels like Amazon's overwhelming victory resembled that of Rome over Carthage in the second century BC. Did Rome really need to put salt in Carthage's fields?

So, what will Amazon need to do to become cool? I have no idea. As a shareholder of Amazon, I don't really care if the company is cool or not. I would love to see it not app! roach all! of its business dealings as a zero-sum game, however, even if that means its customers need to pay a bit more for their products. Who knows, maybe treating all stakeholders fairly is cool.

The Motley Fool is a USA TODAY content partner offering financial news, analysis and commentary designed to help people take control of their financial lives. Its content is produced independently of USA TODAY.

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Monday, November 11, 2013

Hospice: An Hospitable Investment

Print FriendlyCompanies can become attractive value opportunities for a variety of reasons, such as a short-term drop in earnings or residence in an out-of-favor industry. In some instances, uncommon variables make a company difficult to value.

The latter is the case with Chemed Corp (NYSE: CHE).

Chemed operates two very disparate businesses. In addition to owning the iconic Roto-Rooter company, the largest provider of plumbing and drain cleaning services in North America, it also owns VITAS Innovative Hospice Care. VITAS is the largest provider in the US of palliative care services, otherwise known as hospice, with about 8 percent market share in the country, operating 51 programs in 18 states.

As America’s World War II generation passes away and the Baby Boom generation rapidly turns gray, hospice has become a growth industry. While industry data is fragmentary, in 2009 about 33.5 percent of Medicare beneficiaries who passed away died at home, according to a study published by lead author Joan Teno that appeared in the Journal of the American Medical Association earlier this year. Of those, 42 percent died in hospice care as compared to only about 20 percent in the year 2000.

Federal Medicare spending on hospice care has also grown at a compounded annual rate of 16 percent from 1999 to 2011, up from just $2.4 billion at the beginning of that period to $13.8 billion at the end. Over that same period, the number of hospice providers grew from 2,303 to 3,585.

Thanks to this rapid industry growth, VITAS now accounts for about three-quarters of Chemed’s $1.4 billion in revenues last year, with Roto-Rooter making up the remaining 25 percent. As VITAS has steadily accounted for more and more of Chemed’s sales, sales have averaged 6.3 percent growth over the past three years while new income has grown 6.7 percent and earnings per share are up 12.6 percent.

Despite that extremely attra! ctive growth and Chemed’s $1.3 billion market capitalization, the company receives surprisingly little analyst coverage, thanks to its uncommon business dichotomy.

As a result, it trades at a persistent discount to other health care companies, commanding a price-to-earnings (P/E)  ratio of just 16.6 times trailing 12-month earnings compared to an industry average 21.2. It also trades at just 2.9 times its book value (the industry average is 3.7) and a slight discount to trailing one-year sales.

Despite that discount, Chemed’s earnings are forecast to grow by 15 percent over the next five years, handily beating the S&P 500 forecast for 9.8 percent growth.

Much of that growth can be attributed to changing attitudes towards death.

A study conducted by the Pew Research Center five years ago found that about 81 percent of respondents said that religion is important to them, making the US a huge outlier in terms of developed nations. Countries with similar wealth on average saw only about half of respondents say that religion was important to them. And as measured by religious observance, America has been becoming increasingly devout over the past decade.

This increased religiosity has helped to soften attitudes towards death, making death at least a bit more palatable.

A growing number of Americans are also making end-of-life decisions earlier, creating advanced directives and living wills and making their care decisions known to family and medical providers early on. According to a poll conducted by the Associated Press in 2010, about a third of Americans reported having an advance directive in place and 70 percent said that they would prefer to die at home.

Those changing attitudes make it likely that Chemed and VITAS should be able to continue the division’s nearly 13 percent average annual growth in net income over the past decade, if not grow it organically. On top of that, given the extremely fragmented nature of the hospice in! dustry, t! here’s ample opportunity for acquisitions to drive additional growth.

Perhaps the best thing that could happen for investors, though, is a breakup of the two businesses. Despite the relatively strong growth in both the Roto-Rooter and VITAS divisions, the markets don’t give Chemed sufficient credit because of the divergent nature of the two divisions. A breakup would unlock huge value for shareholders, because each division could then be judged on its own merits.

Investors would be well compensated while they wait for the company’s value to be unlocked. Shares currently yield just 1.1 percent, but the dividend has been steadily growing for five years, rising from a total annual payout of $0.24 in 2008 to $0.68 cents last year and $0.76 this year. At a payout ratio of just under 15 percent, there’s ample room to maintain dividend increases along with earnings.

There is one significant caveat. Earlier this year, Medicare filed a lawsuit against Chemed, claiming that VITAS falsely billed the government for medical care. There has been no determination of liability yet so it’s impossible to know what the company’s financial exposure might be. However, the government is suing for treble damages, statutory penalties, legal costs and interest.

The government has been investigating hospices over the past few years, as a growing number of patients are opting for palliative end-of-life care rather than aggressive treatment. So far, 11 smaller hospices have paid $88 million to settle Medicare over-billing allegations.

The odds are that VITAS will pay to settle the allegations, following in the footsteps of most of its competitors in these situations. However, any settlement is likely to be at least a year off. Until then, the suit will hang over shares.

That said, any settlement won’t likely make a huge dent in earnings considering the small recoveries thus far. False billing claims are pretty tough to prove, particularly in the ca! se of hos! pice care.

For investors who can stand some volatility and afford to wait, Chemed is an attractive value play up to 80.

Sunday, November 10, 2013

Top Canadian Stocks To Invest In 2014

Last February independent oil & gas company Endeavour International Corp. (NYSE: END) initiated a strategic review to help it ��urther enhance shareholder value.��The company needed the help. Its size works against it. At the time of its announcement, the company�� market cap was just around $225 million.

The strategic review boosted the share price back over $7, but Monday�� announcement that the strategic review resulted in essentially no change has hit shareholder value in a negative way. Endeavour said its board ��as determined that it is [in] the best interests of shareholders to retain and exploit its existing asset base.��To further that plan the company is closing its London offices and its executive v-p for international operations is gone.

Endeavor owns assets onshore in the U.S. and in the U.K. region of the North Sea. The company expects to begin production ��mminently��at the Rochelle field which will be operated by Nexen, the former Canadian firm that was acquired by China�� Cnooc Ltd. (NYSE: CEO) earlier this year.

Top Canadian Stocks To Invest In 2014: 3M Company(MMM)

3M Company, together with subsidiaries, operates as a diversified technology company worldwide. The company?s Industrial and Transportation segment offers tapes, coated and non-woven abrasives, adhesives, specialty materials, filtration products, energy control products, closure systems for personal hygiene products, acoustic systems products, and components and products that are used in the manufacture, repair, and maintenance of automotive, marine, aircraft, and specialty vehicles. Its Health Care segment provides medical and surgical supplies, skin health and infection prevention products, inhalation and transdermal drug delivery systems, dental and orthodontic products, health information systems, and food safety products. The company?s Display and Graphics offers optical film solutions for LCD electronic displays; computer screen filters; reflective sheeting for transportation safety; commercial graphics sheeting and systems; and mobile interactive solutions, includin g mobile display technology, visual systems products, and computer privacy filters. The company?s Consumer and Office segment provides office supply products, stationery products, construction and home improvement products, home care products, protective material products, certain consumer retail personal safety products, and consumer health care products. Its Safety, Security and Protection Services segment offers personal protection products, safety and security products, cleaning and protection products for commercial establishments, track and trace solutions, and roofing granules for asphalt shingles. The company?s Electro and Communications segment provides packaging and interconnection devices; fluids that are used in the manufacture of computer chips, and for cooling electronics and lubricating computer hard disk drives; high-temperature and display tapes; insulating materials, including tapes and resins; and related items. The company was founded in 1902 and is based in St. Paul, Minnesota.

Advisors' Opinion:
  • [By CFA Institute Contributors]

    3M Co. (MMM)

    3M is a diversified, mature company and a good illustration of how to tackle the equity risk premium and assumptions about terminal value. Damodaran joked that 12 September 2008 was his "last day of innocence" because it was the Friday before the U.S. Treasury department decided the fate of Lehman Brothers. The Monday after the investment bank collapsed, market premiums were drastically different than the week before. To capture this, Damodaran calculates a market implied equity risk premium derived from modifying a yield-to-maturity formula to account for the value of the S&P 500 using projected future cash flows. He argues that the conventional practice of using Ibboston data for the equity risk premium not only doesn't capture the dynamic premium investors require to invest in stocks over risk-free assets, but it also has such a high standard error as to make the data meaningless.

  • [By Travis Hoium]

    3M (NYSE: MMM  ) is the one Dow stock moving significantly lower today, falling 2.5% after it released earnings. Sales only grew 2% at 3M, and profit rose slightly to $1.61 per share, both below estimates. The company gets more than 70% of sales from overseas and foreign currency translation, and that's a major headwind for the company right now. �

Top Canadian Stocks To Invest In 2014: Yamana Gold Inc.(AUY)

Yamana Gold Inc. engages in gold and other precious metals mining, and related activities, including exploration, extraction, processing, and reclamation. It also explores for copper, molybdenum, zinc, and silver metals. The company's portfolio includes 7 operating gold mines namely Chapada; El Pen Advisors' Opinion:

  • [By Ben Levisohn]

    As a result, Chidley and team upgraded Agnico Eagle Mines (AEM) and�Yamana Gold (AUY) to Neutral from Underweight, and raised Barrick Gold (ABX), Goldcorp (GG) and Iamgold (IAG) to Overweight from Neutral.�Gold Fields (GFI) was downgraded “due to increased risk and also reduced expectations for the South Deep operation,” Chidley says.

  • [By Matt DiLallo]

    What's the outlook for gold?
    We already know last quarter was the worst quarter for gold since the start of modern gold trading. The 23% free fall in the price of gold hit gold mining stocks hard: for example, Yamana Gold� (NYSE: AUY  ) plunged 38%. Because of that, analysts have already been reducing expectations of gold miners by ratcheting down earnings estimates. Analysts have already slashed 28% off Yamana's consensus bottom line, which might not be enough because the company had missed estimates in four of the past five quarters. This is where Freeport's more diversified portfolio should really shine. This quarter alone, that diversification has helped to insulate it from the free fall in gold mining stocks -- Freeport's stock was down just over 16%.�

Top 5 Value Stocks To Invest In Right Now: Ritchie Bros. Auctioneers Incorporated(RBA)

Ritchie Bros. Auctioneers Incorporated, an industrial auctioneer, sells various equipment to on-site and online bidders. The company, through unreserved public auctions, sells a range of used and unused industrial assets, including equipment, trucks, and other assets utilized in the construction, transportation, agricultural, material handling, mining, forestry, petroleum, and marine industries. It also provides Internet bidding services, which facilitate customers access to live and online auction participation. The company primarily serves buyers and sellers of equipment, trucks, and other industrial assets; rental companies and brokers; finance companies; and truck and equipment dealers. As of December 31, 2011, it operated approximately 110 locations in approximately 25 countries, including 43 auction sites worldwide. The company was founded in 1963 and is headquartered in Burnaby, Canada.

Advisors' Opinion:
  • [By Chris Hill]

    Caterpillar's (NYSE: CAT  ) �first-quarter profit�fell 45% and the company lowered guidance. But its CEO said that his confidence is at a two-year high and sales in China rose. Should investors buy the stock? In this installment, our analysts discuss Caterpillar's future and explain why Ritchie Bros. Auctioneers (NYSE: RBA  ) could be a hidden winner.

Top Canadian Stocks To Invest In 2014: Nu Skin Enterprises Inc.(NUS)

Nu Skin Enterprises, Inc. develops and distributes anti-aging personal care products and nutritional supplements worldwide. The company sells its personal care products under the Nu Skin brand; and nutritional supplements under the Pharmanex brand. Its personal care product line includes core systems, targeted treatments, total care, cosmetic, and Epoch, a product formulated with botanical ingredients. The company?s nutritional supplements product line comprises micronutrient supplements, targeted solution supplements, and weight management products. It also sells Vitameal, which are nutritious meal products for starving children or purchased for personal food storage. In addition, the company offers other products and services consisting of digital content storage, water purifiers, and other household products. It sells its products primarily through a network of independent distributors in north Asia, the Americas, Greater China, Europe, and the south Asia/Pacific. The c ompany also operates retail stores to sell its products in China. As of December 31, 2010, Nu Skin Enterprises operated 40 stores throughout China. The company was founded in 1984 and is headquartered in Provo, Utah.

Advisors' Opinion:
  • [By Luke Jacobi]

    Nu Skin Enterprises (NYSE: NUS) shot up 8.39 percent to $111.78 after the company reported upbeat third-quarter earnings and issued a strong Q4 outlook.

Top Canadian Stocks To Invest In 2014: Piper Jaffray Companies(PJC)

Piper Jaffray Companies provides investment banking, institutional brokerage, asset management, and related financial services to corporations, private equity groups, public entities, non-profit entities, and institutional investors in the United States, Asia, and Europe. The company raises capital through equity financings; provides advisory services, primarily relating to mergers and acquisitions for its corporate clients; underwrites debt issuances; and offers financial advisory and interest rate risk management services. Its public finance investment banking capabilities focus on state and local governments, as well as healthcare, higher education, housing, hospitality, transportation, and commercial real estate industries, as well as operates in business and financial services, clean technology and renewables, consumer, and industrial growth, as well as media, telecommunications, and technology industries. The company also offers equity and fixed income advisory and t rade execution services for institutional investors, and government and non-profit entities; and is involved in proprietary trading, as well as has equity sales and trading relationships with institutional investors. In addition, it provides asset management services to separately managed accounts, private funds or partnerships, and open-end and closed-end registered investment companies or funds; and offers an array of investment products comprising small and mid-cap value equity, and master limited partnerships focused on the energy industry, as well as fixed income. Further, the company engages in merchant banking activities, which comprises proprietary debt or equity investments in late stage private companies, and investments in private equity and venture capital funds, as well as other firm investments and forfeiture of stock-based compensation. Piper Jaffray Companies was founded in 1895 and is headquartered in Minneapolis, Minnesota.

Advisors' Opinion:
  • [By EXPstocktrader]

    3) Piper Jaffray (PJC): Recent weakness is unwarranted as the landscape for Acthar remains favorable: OVERWEIGHT (BUY) rating and $74 PT

    4) CRT Capital: BUY rating and $79 PT.

  • [By Monica Gerson]

    Piper Jaffray Companies (NYSE: PJC) is expected to report its Q3 earnings at $0.52 per share on revenue of $117.55 million.

    W.W. Grainger (NYSE: GWW) is estimated to report its Q3 earnings at $3.03 per share on revenue of $2.42 billion.

  • [By Sean Williams]

    What: Shares of investment banking and asset management firm Piper Jaffray (NYSE: PJC  ) sank as much as 11% after reporting disappointing second-quarter earnings results.

  • [By Rich Smith]

    Investment banker Piper Jaffray (NYSE: PJC  ) expanded its municipal debt business Wednesday, when it purchased Seattle-Northwest Securities in a transaction valued at approximately $21 million.

Top Canadian Stocks To Invest In 2014: Concord Medical Services Holdings Limited (CCM)

Concord Medical Services Holdings Limited, together with its subsidiaries, operates a network of radiotherapy and diagnostic imaging centers in the People�s Republic of China. The company�s services comprise linear accelerators external beam radiotherapy, gamma knife radiosurgery, head gamma knife systems, body gamma knife systems, proton beam therapy, diagnostic imaging, and other treatment and diagnostic modalities. It offers clinical support services; develops treatment protocols for doctors; and organizes joint diagnosis between doctors in its network and clinical research. The company also operates a specialty cancer hospital, as well as leases medical and diagnostic equipment. As of March 31, 2011, it operated a network of 121 centers with 68 hospital partners that cover 46 cities and 24 provinces, and administrative regions in China. The company was founded in 1996 and is headquartered in Beijing, the People�s Republic of China.

Top Canadian Stocks To Invest In 2014: DCP Midstream Partners LP (DPM)

DCP Midstream Partners, LP, together with its subsidiaries, engages in gathering, compressing, treating, processing, transporting, storing, and selling natural gas in the United States. It also transports, stores, and sells propane in wholesale markets; and produces, fractionates, transports, stores, and sells natural gas liquids (NGLs) and condensate. The company operates in three segments: Natural Gas Services, Wholesale Propane Logistics, and NGL Logistics. The Natural Gas Services segment operates Northern Louisiana system that gathers, process, and transports natural gas; Southern Oklahoma system; Colorado system; Wyoming system that covers 1,300 miles of natural gas gathering pipelines that cover approximately 4,000 square miles in the Powder River Basin in Wyoming; and Michigan system. It also operates Discovery system, East Texas system, and Southeast Texas system. The Wholesale Propane Logistics segment owns and operates a propane marine import terminal; a leased propane marine terminal; a propane pipeline terminal; and six propane rail terminals, as well as access to several open access pipeline terminals. This segment sells its propane to retail propane distributors. The NGL Logistics segment operates Seabreeze and Wilbreeze NGL transportation pipelines, the Wattenberg NGL transportation pipeline, the Black Lake interstate NGL pipeline, and the NGL storage facility in Marysville, Michigan. DCP Midstream Partners, LP was founded in 2005 and is based in Denver, Colorado.

Top Canadian Stocks To Invest In 2014: Talisman Energy Inc.(TLM)

Talisman Energy Inc., an upstream oil and gas company, engages in the exploration, development, production, transportation, and marketing of crude oil, natural gas, and natural gas liquids. It primarily operates in North America, the North Sea, and southeast Asia. The company was founded in 1925 and is headquartered in Calgary, Canada.

Advisors' Opinion:
  • [By Monica Gerson]

    Shares of Talisman Energy (NYSE: TLM) jumped more than 8% in after-hours trading after Carl Icahn disclosed a stake in the company. Talisman Energy shares surged 8.94% to $13.89 in the after-hours trading session.

Friday, November 8, 2013

4 Unusual-Volume Stocks in Breakout Territory

DELAFIELD, Wis. (Stockpickr) -- Professional traders running mutual funds and hedge funds don't just look at a stock's price moves; they also track big changes in volume activity. Often when above-average volume moves into an equity, it precedes a large spike in volatility.

>>5 Stocks Ready to Break Out This Month

Major moves in volume can signal unusual activity, such as insider buying or selling -- or buying or selling by "superinvestors."

Unusual volume can also be a major signal that hedge funds and momentum traders are piling into a stock ahead of a catalyst. These types of traders like to get in well before a large spike, so it's always a smart move to monitor unusual volume. That said, remember to combine trend and price action with unusual volume. Put them all together to help you decipher the next big trend for any stock.

>>5 Stocks Set to Soar on Bullish Earnings

With that in mind, let's take a look at several stocks rising on unusual volume today.

CaesarStone Sdot-Yam

CaesarStone Sdot-Yam (CSTE) manufactures engineered quartz surfaces. This stock closed up 6.6% to $45.19 in Wednesday's trading session.

Wednesday's Volume: 845,000

Three-Month Average Volume: 280,482

Volume % Change: 247%

From a technical perspective, CSTE ripped sharply higher here right off its 50-day moving average of $42.38 with strong upside volume. This move pushed shares of CSTE into breakout territory, since the stock took out some near-term overhead resistance at $44.74. Market players should now look for a continuation move higher in the short-term if CSTE can take out some key near-term overhead resistance levels.

Traders should now look for long-biased trades in CSTE as long as it's trending above its 50-day at $42.38 and then once it sustains a move or close above Wednesday's high of $47.50 to its all-time high at $48.69 with volume that hits near or above 280,482 shares. If we get that move soon, then CSTE will set up to enter new all-time-high territory, which is bullish technical price action. Some possible upside targets off that move are $55 to $60.

PowerSecure International

PowerSecure International (POWR) is a provider of products and services to electric utilities and to their large commercial, institutional and industrial customers. This stock closed up 5.9% at $19.62 in Wednesday's trading session.

Wednesday's Volume: 1.05 million

Three-Month Average Volume: 265,283

Volume % Change: 331%

From a technical perspective, POWR spiked sharply higher here with heavy upside volume. This move pushed shares of POWR into breakout and new 52-week-high territory, which is bullish technical price action. Market players should now look for a continuation move higher of POWER can tag a new 52-week high in the near-term.

Traders should now look for long-biased trades in POWR as long as it's trending above Wednesday's low of $18.72 and then once it sustains a move or close above Wednesday's high of $20.57 with volume that's near or above 265,283 shares. If we get that move soon, then POWR will set up to enter new 52-week-high territory, which is bullish technical price action. Some possible upside targets off that move are $25 to $27.

Jazz Pharmaceuticals

Jazz Pharmaceuticals (JAZZ) is a specialty pharmaceutical company focused on developing and commercializing innovative products to meet unmet medical needs in neurology and psychiatry. This stock closed up 1.2% at $93.78 in Wednesday's trading session.

Wednesday's Volume: 1.14 million

Three-Month Average Volume: 701,478

Volume % Change: 95%

From a technical perspective, JAZZ spiked modestly higher here right above its 50-day moving average of $88.49 with above-average volume. This move briefly pushed shares of JAZZ into breakout and new 52-week high territory, since it took out some near-term overhead resistance at $95.24. Traders should now look for a continuation move higher if JAZZ can make a new 52-week high soon.

Traders should now look for long-biased trades in JAZZ as long as it's trending above $92 or Wednesday's low of $90.47, and then once it sustains a move or close above Wednesday's high of $97.44 with volume that's near or above 701,478 shares. If we get that move soon, then JAZZ will set up to enter new 52-week-high territory, which is bullish technical price action. Some possible upside targets off that move are $105 to $110

BioTelemetry

BioTelemetry (BEAT) provides ambulatory, continuous, real-time outpatient management solutions for monitoring relevant and timely clinical information regarding an individual's health. This stock closed up 16% at $10.44 in Wednesday's trading session.

Wednesday's Volume: 4.14 million

Three-Month Average Volume: 634,557

Volume % Change: 598%

From a technical perspective, BEAT exploded higher here and gapped up back above its 50-day moving average of $9.58 with monster upside volume. This move briefly pushed shares of BEAT into breakout and new 52-week-high territory, since it took out some near-term overhead resistance levels at $10.17 to $11.27. Market players should now look for a continuation move higher in the short-term if BEAT can make a new 52-week high.

Traders should now look for long-biased trades in BEAT as long as it's trending above Wednesday's low of $10.09 or its 50-day at $9.58 and then once it sustains a move or close above Wednesday's high of $11.40 with volume that hits near or above 634,557 shares. If we get that move soon, then BEAT will set up to enter new 52-week-high territory, which is bullish technical price action. Some possible upside targets off that move are $14 to $15.

To see more stocks rising on unusual volume, check out the Stocks Rising on Unusual Volume portfolio on Stockpickr.

-- Written by Roberto Pedone in Delafield, Wis.


RELATED LINKS:



>>5 Stocks Under $10 Spiking Higher



>>5 Dividend Boosters That Could Really Pay Off



>>Buy These 5 REITs to Cash In This Year

Follow Stockpickr on Twitter and become a fan on Facebook.

At the time of publication, author had no positions in stocks mentioned.

Roberto Pedone, based out of Delafield, Wis., is an independent trader who focuses on technical analysis for small- and large-cap stocks, options, futures, commodities and currencies. Roberto studied international business at the Milwaukee School of Engineering, and he spent a year overseas studying business in Lubeck, Germany. His work has appeared on financial outlets including

CNBC.com and Forbes.com. You can follow Pedone on Twitter at www.twitter.com/zerosum24 or @zerosum24.


Wednesday, November 6, 2013

Barrick Spooks Gold Sector after Halloween

Hot Cheap Companies To Invest In 2014

The recent announcement coming from this leading gold producer has had far-reaching ramifications, writes MoneyShow's Jim Jubak, also of Jubak's Picks.

Barrick Gold (ABX) freaked out the gold sector on November 1, with news that it would raise at least $3 billion in a new stock offering.

At a minimum of 163.5 million shares, the offering represents 16% dilution for current shareholders. (Earnings would have to be spread over 16% more shares.) And that has raised fears across the sector, as traders and investors try to figure out which company might be next. Of course, as is usual, the initial reaction is to sell first and figure out the danger to any specific company later.

Shares of Barrick Gold fell 11.2% on November 1. Want an example of collateral damage? Shares of Yamana Gold (AUY) dropped 5.6% on the day. (Yamana Gold is a member of my Jubak's Picks portfolio.)

Here's the problem at Barrick Gold in a cash flow nutshell. With the drop in the price of gold, Barrick's revenue has tumbled and that has put a big strain on cash flow. The company finished the September quarter with $2.28 billion in cash and cash flow from operations of $1.23 billion. But because Barrick has such a big investment program, that operating cash flow turns into just $26 million in free cash flow. And that's after cutting dividend payments in the quarter to $50 million from $200 million, and reducing capital spending to $1.21 billion from $1.56 billion.

Without those reductions, Barrick Gold would have been free cash flow negative for the September quarter.

That left CEP Jamie Sokalsky with just a few options.

The company could further cut capital spending by suspending construction at projects, such as the Pasua-Lama mine on the Argentina-Chile border. Barrick announced that it would do just that at the same time as it announced its stock offering. Cutting capital spending, however, is a tricky game, since it does delay future revenue gains, even if it saves money now.

Barrick could sell assets—but with the price of gold and copper assets so low, this assures that the company sells on the cheap.

Or the company could bite the bullet and sell stock.

Beyond the effects at Barrick, the stock sale raised worries across the sector that 1) Barrick was expecting gold prices to fall even further, and that 2) other gold miners will have to sell stock and dilute current shareholders.

I can't predict the price of gold from here. With the US and global economies showing signs of weakness, I think you can certainly make an argument that gold isn't a good candidate for a rally from here in the coming months.

I think you can get a handle on the dangers of dilution, however, at any company by taking a long look at cash flow. The picture isn't pretty, even at the strongest companies in the sector. At Yamana, for example, cash flow from operations of $99 million in the September quarter, turned into negative free cash flow of $119 for the period. The company hasn't yet reduced dividends, but that seems quite possible in coming quarters. Yamana has cut capital expenditures to $218 million from $301 though.

In its conference call, Yamana said that it projected that the fourth quarter represented the end of a capital spending "bulge." Add that to an expected increase in gold production and improving margins, and the company projected that its cash position would bottom in the fourth quarter and then begin to improve.

The question, of course, is whether or not you believe that projection. Yamana is forecasting that gold prices will be flat in 2014. That would be good news for the company's cash flow, since I'd assume that given its current cost cutting record, Yamana could grow cash flow if gold prices stayed steady.

Why do I think that's possible? From the second quarter of 2013 to the third quarter, Yamana was able to increase cash flow per share by 20%—from 20 cents a share to 24 cents a share—by cutting costs and by shifting production to higher margin mines from lower margin mines.

I think this all means that investors in Yamana have a good chance of escaping the dilution that Barrick just delivered to its shareholders.

That isn't a lock, of course. And these certainly aren't great times in the gold sector. If, however, I could get a chance to buy Yamana Gold at $9.00 or less, because of troubles at its sector peers, I think the risk would be more than repaid by the potential reward.

Full disclosure: I don't own shares of any of the companies mentioned in this post in my personal portfolio. When in 2010 I started the mutual fund I manage, Jubak Global Equity Fund, I liquidated all my individual stock holdings and put the money into the fund. The fund may or may not now own positions in any stock mentioned in this post. The fund did own shares of Yamana Gold as of the end of June. For a full list of the stocks in the fund as of the end of June see the fund's portfolio here.

Tuesday, November 5, 2013

Can Reed Hastings' Netflix Succeed Jobs And Apple?

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Netflix Inc. (Nasdaq:NFLX) has become the company that everyone wants to talk about.

On Wall Street, giddy investors pinch themselves as they scoop up large returns on their investment in the shares. Netflix' stock has more than tripled so far this year, while Apple (Nasdaq:AAPL) has declined 1.4% year-to-date. Apple, once the darling of the Street, has plummeted more than 40% from its all-time high of $702.10 on Sept. 19, 2012.

The online video company's success is being driven by consumers who love the convenience of getting DVDs of television shows and movies delivered to their homes, saving them the trouble of getting in the car and schlepping to the mall. In Hollywood, the entertainment moguls marvel at how Netflix has become a creative force to be reckoned with after producing original television series "House of Cards" and "Orange Is the New Black" while besting Amazon and Hulu in getting rights to reruns such as Showtime's "Dexter" series.

"The company that started as an innovative deliver-DVDs-by-mail service has become a major player in the television industry, scaring and angering competitors in the process," noted the Los Angeles Times on Oct. 30. "Netflix seems to be aggravating everyone but the 40 million people who subscribe to its service."

The mind behind Netflix' big buzz is CEO Reed Hastings, the Comeback Kid of corporate America. As recently as the summer of 2011, Hastings wore a crown of thorns after he announced a price hike during a difficult U.S. economic cycle. Today, however, Hastings is arguably wearing the crown of the late Apple Inc. CEO Steve Jobs, as the most innovative CEO on the business scene.

"Hastings could be the successor to Jobs as the model in Silicon Valley for how to innovate," said Paul Carroll, a principal in San Francisco in the consulting firm The Devil's Advocate Group.

Has! tings also has Jobs' instinct for great timing when it comes to innovating.

"He learns fast," Carroll said. "He was ready to launch a streaming service some years ago that would have let people download movies overnight, but then he saw YouTube and realized that overnight was no longer fast enough. He killed his project, kept testing and waited for the right moment."

Hastings' record of innovation, while not quite at Jobsian levels, is behind his new status. Jobs led Apple out of its computer origins by pushing to create the iPod, the iPhone and the iPad. His true genius may have been marketing, given he convinced millions of affluent people that they couldn't live without these products.

Hastings has also innovated and, along the way, re-invented his company. He had the foresight to conclude that Netflix could only go so far by streaming and re-selling other people's content and than it needed to impress Wall Street, which rewards consistent growth.

"Netflix is in its own orbit right now," said Michael Holland. "Wall Street is saying it is the business flavor du jour. It is benefiting from the buzz. It is now fashionable to say how wonderful Netflix is."

So, last February, Hastings solved both challenges by coming up with "House of Cards," a political thriller starring two-time Oscar winning actor Kevin Spacey. The show was an immediate hit. At last April's White House Correspondents Dinner, Spacey was the guest most sought after for face time, autographs and even photographs by the Beltway's heavy hitters.

A few months later, Netflix followed up with "Orange Is the New Black," which was noteworthy for the sheer number of diverse and compelling women who dominated the show.

"We can observe the strong signs of Netflix' innovation in its content creation," said Syracuse University professor Robert Thompson. "'Orange is the New Black' shows a diversity of women – set in a prison -- and treats them in a non-trashy and non-soap manner. With its edgy programming, Netflix has become the new AMC, which everyone praises for such edgy shows as 'Mad Men' and 'Breaking Bad'. One bit of proof that Netflix has arrived in content origination is that it has started getting nominations and winning awards a lot faster than HBO ever did."

Under Hastings' leadership, Netflix has also contributed to the sociological phenomenon of consumers cutting their ties to cable companies and viewing entertainment completely online.

"I bet that more than half of my students don't have a TV set in their dorm rooms. When they move out of their parents' homes, they don't even want cable TV or to pick up a cord of their own. Just as landline phones have given way to mobile phones in that industry, you're going to see another change among young people, with more and more cord cutting as Netflix becomes even more popular." noted Thompson.

What about Amazon (Nasdaq:AMZN) CEO Jeff Bezos, who is no stranger to the rewards and accolades that come with innovation? Like Jobs, Bezos grew up with an adoptive father.

Bezos is certainly a worthy contender for Jobs' crown, but Amazon has not had the trajectory of Netflix – in terms of making such a notable comeback at a time when it is not easy for a corporation to win back goodwill. Amazon, Netflix and Apple spokespeople declined to comment on comparisons between their corporate leaders.

It's clear that Hastings will continue to rely on the methods that have gotten him and Netflix this far.

"Netflix beat Blockb! uster by thinking big, starting small and learning fast," noted corporate consultant Chunka Mui, also the coauthor of "The New Killer Apps: How Large Companies Will Out-Innovate Startups."

How can Netflix continue to outshine competitors? Mui's answer is simple and direct: "It needs to remember the innovation mantra: think big, start small, and learn fast."

The Bottom Line

Can Reed Hastings' Netflix balloon continue to keep going up and up?

Investors would be wise to question the prospects for the stock, considering that Netflix disappoint them in the summer of 2011. At the same time, we can learn from our mistakes. Hastings appears to be gained perspective and the recognition that he will succeed through continuous innovation.

Isn't that the lesson that Steve Jobs taught us all? As a matter of fact, it is.

Monday, November 4, 2013

Two (Promoted) Small Caps That Surged Friday: PGLO & ASAB

Small cap stocks Pan Global Corp (OTCMKTS: PGLO) and Allerayde SAB (OTCMKTS: ASAB) surged 28.46% and 19.5%, respectively, last Friday. However, both small cap have also been the subject of paid promotional campaigns that have earned both mentions in investment newsletters or investor alerts. And while there is nothing wrong with properly disclosed stock promotions or investor relation campaigns, they can come back to bite unwary investors and traders alike. So do these two small cap stocks have what it takes to stay high this week and into the future? Here is a closer look and a quick reality check:

Pan Global Corp (OTCMKTS: PGLO) Talks Up the Global Small Hydro Power Market

Small cap Pan Global Corp through its wholly owned subsidiary, Pan Asia Infratech, Corp., is focused on environmentally sustainable energy, infrastructure and technologies. On Friday, Pan Global Corp surged 28.46% to $0.736 for a market cap of $335.04 million plus PGLO is down 63.2% in intermittent trading since last March according to Google Finance.

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What's the Catch With Pan Global Corp? According to various disclosures, a transaction of $20k has or will occur to mention Pan Global Corp in various investment newsletters. Pan Global Corp has been very busy issuing press releases lately. Last Thursday, Pan Global Corp issued a press release to talk up the "global market opportunity for the small hydro power ("SHP") industry" which is expected to grow steadily with 200 GW installed capacity by 2020 while the value in 2015 is expected to be more than a double of 2008 figures - reaching $38.5 billion (USD). Last Tuesday, Pan Global Corp announced that its wholly-owned subsidiary (Pan Asia Infratech) had entered into a definitive stock purchase agreement to acquire 100% of the outstanding shares and convertible debt of Regency Yamuna Energy Limited - a privately held Indian corporation which is commissioning a 5.7 MW small-hydro project in northern India. Otherwise, investors should note Pan Global Corp recently announced a reduction of its issued and outstanding common shares from 455,155,000 to 155,155,000 plus the company recently completed a common stock for preferred stock exchange agreement its majority shareholder to exchange 300,000,000 common shares for 3,000,000 Shares of Series C Convertible Preferred Shares. A quick look at Pan Global Corp's financials reveals revenues of $15k (most recent reported quarter), zero, zero and zero for the past four reported quarters along with net losses of $107k (most recent reported quarter), $6k, $7k and $7k. At the end of June, Pan Global Corp had $10k in cash to cover $395k in current liabilities. So its obvious why Pan Global Corp had to use a "definitive stock purchase agreement" to acquire Regency Yamuna Energy Limited, but it remains to be seen whether the company can take advantage of the global market opportunity for the small hydro power market.

Allerayde SAB (OTCMKTS: ASAB) Is Being Pumped Up By Alot of Money

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Small cap Allerayde SAB is a US/UK based healthcare company specializing innovative, product development and marketing in allergy, eczema and anaphylaxis (allergy shock) both in the professional and consumer sectors. On Friday, Allerayde SAB surged 19.5% to $0.490 for a market cap of $36.49 million plus ASAB is up 9,700% over the past year and down 15.5% since April 2010 according to Google Finance.

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What's the Catch With Allerayde SAB? According to various disclosures, transactions of €7k, €20k and €500k have or will occur to mention Allerayde SAB in various investment newsletters. However and despite the large amount of promotion money being spent on pumping up Allerayde SAB, I am not seeing any press release or news from the company on Yahoo! Finance or Google Finance. Moreover, Allerayde SAB has reported revenues of zero (most recent reported quarter), $16k, zero and zero for the past four quarters along with net losses of $4k (most recent reported quarter), $61k and $458k and net income of $81k. At the end of June, Allerayde SAB had no cash to cover $2,570k in current liabilities. Those financials make it hard to justify Allerayde SAB's market cap – along with all the promotion money being thrown around to promote the stock.

Sunday, November 3, 2013

Don`t pay more than book value for these firms

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For e.g. a five percent return on an investment in India would be considered grossly inadequate by Indian investors. For it does not even cover the rise in inflation, that until recently was as high as 9%-10%.

However, the five percent return would be more than satisfactory for a person in the US where the official inflation figures are barely above 2%-3% or may be even less. Secondly, a return of 10% on a bond investment in India can be considered good enough. But if the same return were expected of a stock, it would again be inadequate we believe.

Stocks are riskier than bonds and hence, to cover the extra risk, the expected returns should also be higher. Something in the range of 12%-15% will be more appropriate for stocks we believe.

This isn't a very complicated rule to follow, isn't it? But we routinely encounter cases in stock markets where people price stocks in such a way that returns expected of them end up being much lower than bonds.

Take the example of the firms in the table below. Assume for the sake of this article that your expected rate of return from a stock is 15%. Thus, what book value multiple would you be willing to give to a stock where ROE (Return on Equity) has averaged not more than 15% over the past five years? A maximum price to book value of 1x, isn't it?

Company Last 5 year avg RONW P/BV*
Asahi India Glass 2.4 6.31
Sunteck Realty 4.4 6.06
Vakrangee Softwares 13.7 5.27
Shoppers Stop 4.9 4.7
Dr Reddys Lab 13.3 4.16
Tata Coffee 11.1 3.88
Hexaware Tech

12.2 3.8
Apollo Hospitals 11.1 3.72
Oberoi Realty 8.6 3.52
Reliance Industrial Infra 14.7 3.51

 

 

 


 

 

 

 

 

 

 

Source: Ace Equity, BSE 500 universe, standalone numbers * Price as on 6th July 2012 (Banks, holding companies and firms with negative numbers have been excluded)

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