Thursday, October 31, 2013

Will United Technologies See Higher Prices?

With shares of United Technologies (NYSE:UTX) trading around $93.49, is UTX an OUTPERFORM, WAIT AND SEE or STAY AWAY? Let's analyze the stock with the relevant sections of our CHEAT SHEET investing framework:

T = Trends for a Stock’s Movement

United Technologies provides technology products and services to the building systems and aerospace industries worldwide. The Company operates in six segments: Otis, Carrier, UTC Fire & Security, Pratt & Whitney, Hamilton Sundstrand and Sikorsky. Air travel and defense has been rising in importance over the last decade or so. Governments around the world consistently demand improved aerial technology. Companies and consumers also demand improved efficiency and reduced prices. As air gains market share as a prepared method of transportation, look for companies like United Technologies to see rising profits well into the future.

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T = Technicals on the Stock Chart are Strong

United Technologies stock has seen a consistent uptrend over the last several years. The stock is now consolidating at all-time high prices so it will more than likely continue higher. Analyzing the price trend and its strength can be done using key simple moving averages. What are the key moving averages? The 50-day (pink), 100-day (blue), and 200-day (yellow) simple moving averages. As seen in the daily price chart below, United Technologies is trading above its rising key averages which signal neutral to bullish price action in the near-term.

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UTX

(Source: Thinkorswim)

Taking a look at the implied volatility (red) and implied volatility skew levels of United Technologies options may help determine if investors are bullish, neutral, or bearish.

Implied Volatility (IV)

30-Day IV Percentile

90-Day IV Percentile

United Technologies Options

16.64%

0%

0%

What does this mean? This means that investors or traders are buying an insignificant amount of call and put options contracts, as compared to the last 30 and 90 trading days.

Put IV Skew

Call IV Skew

May Options

Flat

Average

June Options

Flat

Average

As of today, there is an average demand from call buyers or sellers and low demand by put buyers or high demand by put sellers, all neutral to bullish over the next two months. To summarize, investors are buying an insignificant amount of call and put option contracts and are leaning neutral to bullish over the next two months.

On the next page, let’s take a look at the earnings and revenue growth rates and the conclusion.

E = Earnings Are Increasing Quarter-Over-Quarter

Rising stock prices are often strongly correlated with rising earnings and revenue growth rates. Also, the last four quarterly earnings announcement reactions help gauge investor sentiment on United Technologies’s stock. What do the last four quarterly earnings and revenue growth (Y-O-Y) figures for United Technologies look like and more importantly, how did the markets like these numbers?

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2013 Q1

2012 Q4

2012 Q3

2012 Q2

Earnings Growth (Y-O-Y)

286.1%

53.44%

6.12%

1.38%

Revenue Growth (Y-O-Y)

15.97%

14.37%

5.67%

-4.58%

Earnings Reaction

-0.79%

0.68%

-0.97%

0.44%

United Technologies has seen increasing earnings and revenue figures over the last four quarters. From these figures, the markets have expected a little more from United Technologies’s recent earnings announcements.

P = Average Relative Performance Versus Peers and Sector

How has United Technologies stock done relative to its peers, Boeing (NYSE:BA), General Electric (NYSE:GE), Honeywell (NYSE:HON), and sector?

United Technologies

Boeing

General Electric

Honeywell

Sector

Year-to-Date Return

14.01%

25%

7.62%

19.88%

12.39%

United Technologies has been an average performer, year-to-date.

Conclusion

United Technologies provides valuable aerospace technology and services to a multitude of companies participating in various industries worldwide. The stock has been a strong performer over the last several years and is now consolidating near all-time high prices. Earnings and revenue figures have been growing but investors have expected a little more from the company. Relative to its strong peers and sector, United Technologies has been an average year-to-date performer. Look for United Technologies to OUTPERFORM.

Tuesday, October 29, 2013

Regular folks can afford to wait on Twitter’s IPO

As Twitter promotes its IPO in cities across the nation before its first day of trading, USA TODAY markets reporter Matt Krantz schools the average investor on whether to jump in now or wait a few months.


1. How does the casual investor go about getting in on a hot IPO, aka initial public offering, like Twitter?

You need to have an existing relationship with a broker. Wealthy clients and customers of the large investment banks have the best chance to get shares of highly coveted IPO shares.

But if you're not rich and famous, or have a long-standing account with a full-service brokerage involved in the IPO, you will need to contact your discount broker to see whether it will offer Twitter shares to its customers.

Recently, about 20% of shares sold in an IPO will be held back for regular folks. This limited number of shares are usually doled out by well-known discount brokers, including Charles Schwab, TD Ameritrade and Fidelity. Just be careful. Remember that most of the shares of popular IPOs are claimed by the big investment banks who give them to their top clients and customers.

My rule of thumb is that if you are a regular person, if there are shares available for regular folks, then that means that the smart ones and rich ones don't want in on them and you should probably avoid them, too.

Remember, too, you don't have to buy shares in the Twitter IPO to be a Twitter investor. You can wait for the shares to start trading once the early investors sell. If demand is weak for the shares, you might even be able to buy shares below their IPO price.

2. Do you think Twitter's IPO will be a success?

Measuring the success of an IPO depends on what side of the table you're sitting on. The higher the price set on the IPO shares, the more money the seller, the company and early investors make. But the higher the price, the less that's left on the table for new investors.

If demand is strong for Twitter shares, and Twitter raises the more than $1 bil! lion it's seeking, it will be a success for the company. But for investors, success will be measured based on how the shares perform after they start trading. If the company sells the shares at a steep premium, and investors pay up only for the shares to fall, that's not most investors' idea of success.

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And that's why studies have shown that it is often best to let a new stock trade for three to six months and then buy the stock. Everyone is guessing and so it is dangerous to buy when it first goes public. It can be an overhype deal.

3. The reason that I ask is that some skeptics are saying many people are unsure how Twitter fits in their daily lives. How is Twitter dealing with these criticisms?

I really don't think that will have anything to do with the Twitter IPO. With Facebook, you heard endless stories about the "Facebook fatigue." But that criticism doesn't matter since the company is printing money and the stock is even doubling this year. Investors often confused a company and its stock. They're two very different things. Over the long term, if a company is doing well then the stock and the performance of the company tend to parallel with each other. But in the short term, a stock and the company's fortunes can head in different directions.

People don't know what the future will be. The fact that some people don't use Twitter might be a positive for investing in the stock, because people who don't might start using it and since people who quit it, might go back to it. People shouldn't focus on the criticism; instead they should focus on the price that they are paying for the shares.

4. Would you advise average people to jump in now or wait a few months after Twitter goes public to get in on it?

It's tricky because investors don't know what the exact price is going to be as to what the stock will sell at. The key i! s to focu! s on the price of the stock. Right now, we have an estimated price range of $17 to $20 a share. But that's just an estimate and it could rise or fall based on how much demand there is for the stock.

If the IPO price increases the price, then it becomes even more speculative and risky. If the IPO price goes lower, which is highly unlikely, then maybe it is something that investors should look at. If you don't have any experience with financial matters, then it is best to leave it alone. If you do have experience, watch the price until there is an opportunity to jump in.

Monday, October 28, 2013

Can Yum! Brands Break Out?

With shares of Yum! Brands (NYSE:YUM) trading around $68, is YUM an OUTPERFORM, WAIT AND SEE or STAY AWAY? Let's analyze the stock with the relevant sections of our CHEAT SHEET investing framework:

T = Trends for a Stock’s Movement

Yum! Brands is a quick service restaurant company based on number of system units, with approximately 37,000 units in more than 120 countries and territories. The company — through its three main restaurants of KFC, Pizza Hut, and Taco Bell — develops, operates, franchises, and licenses a worldwide system of restaurants. These popular food chains prepare, package, and sell a menu of priced food items. Convenience and tasteful foods continue to rise in popularity worldwide, which allows Yum! Brands to be able to provide the food items demanded by consumers worldwide. Through its segments, Yum! Brands will continue to supply its world audience with quick and tasty items for many years.

T = Technicals on the Stock Chart are Mixed

Yum! Brands stock has been consolidating after a few years of explosive moves higher. The stock is still in the middle of its consolidation range, but a solid break higher will surely see a powerful move. Analyzing the price trend and its strength can be done using key simple moving averages. What are the key moving averages? The 50-day (pink), 100-day (blue), and 200-day (yellow) simple moving averages. As seen in the daily price chart below, Yum! Brands is trading around its rising key averages which signal neutral price action in the near-term.

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YUM

(Source: Thinkorswim)

Taking a look at the implied volatility (red) and implied volatility skew levels of Yum! Brands options may help determine if investors are bullish, neutral, or bearish.

Implied Volatility (IV)

30-Day IV Percentile

90-Day IV Percentile

Yum! Brands Options

27.7%

93%

90%

What does this mean? This means that investors or traders are buying a very significant amount of call and put options contracts, as compared to the last 30 and 90 trading days.

Put IV Skew

Call IV Skew

July Options

Flat

Average

August Options

Flat

Average

As of today, there is an average demand from call buyers or sellers and low demand by put buyers or high demand by put sellers, all neutral to bullish over the next two months. To summarize, investors are buying a very significant amount of call and put option contracts and are leaning neutral to bullish over the next two months.

On the next page, let’s take a look at the earnings and revenue growth rates and the conclusion.

E = Earnings Are Mixed Quarter-Over-Quarter

Rising stock prices are often strongly correlated with rising earnings and revenue growth rates. Also, the last four quarterly earnings announcement reactions help gauge investor sentiment on Yum! Brands’s stock. What do the last four quarterly earnings and revenue growth (Y-O-Y) figures for Yum! Brands look like and more importantly, how did the markets like these numbers?

2013 Q1

2012 Q4

2012 Q3

2012 Q2

Earnings Growth (Y-O-Y)

-25%

-3.09%

25%

6.15%

Revenue Growth (Y-O-Y)

-7.58%

1.02%

9.01%

12.50%

Earnings Reaction

7.01%

-2.9%

7.49%

0.47%

Yum! Brands has seen mixed earnings and revenue figures over the last four quarters. From these figures, the markets have generally been pleased with Yum! Brands’s recent earnings announcements.

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P = Poor Relative Performance Versus Peers and Sector

How has Yum! Brands stock done relative to its peers, McDonald’s (NYSE:MCD), Jack In The Box (NASDAQ:JACK), Wendy’s (NASDAQ:WEN), and sector?

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Yum! Brands

McDonald’s

Jack In The Box

Wendy’s

Sector

Year-to-Date Return

3.57%

10.93%

28.57%

24.36%

11.56%

Yum! Brands has been a poor relative performer, year-to-date.

Conclusion

Yum! Brands is a quick service restaurant company that is most notably known for its KFC, Pizza Hut, and Taco Bell food chains. The stock has been consolidating over the last year after experiencing several powerful moves higher over the last few years. Over the last four quarters, Yum! Brands has seen mixed earnings and revenue figures that have generally kept investors pleased. Relative to its peers and sector, Yum! Brands has been a poor year-to-date performer. WAIT AND SEE what Yum! Brands does in coming quarters.

Sunday, October 27, 2013

Why FAZ Is Poised to Keep Falling

Based on the aggregated intelligence of 180,000-plus investors participating in Motley Fool CAPS, the Fool's free investing community, the Direxion Daily Financial Bear 3X Shares (NYSE: FAZ) have received the dreaded one-star ranking.

With that in mind, let's take a closer look at FAZ and see what CAPS investors are saying about the ETF right now.

FAZ facts

 

 

Inception

November 2008

Total Net Assets

$551.5 million

Investment Approach

The investment seeks daily investment results of 300% of the inverse (or opposite) of the performance of the Russell 1000 Financial Services Index. The fund, under normal circumstances, creates short positions by investing at least 80% of its assets in financial instruments that, in combination, provide leveraged and unleveraged exposure to the index.

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Expense Ratio

0.95%

Year-to-Date / 1-Year / 3-Year Return

(53.4%) / (69.4%) / (53.1%)

Alternatives

ProShares Short S&P 500 

ProShares UltraShort QQQ 

ProShares UltraShort MSCI Europe 

Sources: S&P Capital IQ and Motley Fool CAPS.

On CAPS, 85% of the 410 All-Star members who have rated FAZ believe the ETF will underperform the S&P 500 going forward.

Just last week, one of those Fools, TerryHogan, touched on the trends working against FAZ:

I like the financials in the US right now. There's going to be some consolidation until you end up with your few big nationwide guys, similar to the situation in Canada. It just makes sense from a business standpoint and a consumer standpoint. If I move from Flint Michigan to Austin Texas, it's nice if I don't have to switch banks. And if you're a bank, it's nice not to only be operating in Flint.

 

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Saturday, October 26, 2013

Muddy Waters Fails to Shake American Tower With Short Bet

Peter Foley/Bloomberg Carson Block, founder of Muddy Waters LLC, speaks during a Bloomberg Television interview in New York on July 17, 2013.

Never before has the unveiling of a Carson Block short sale done less to sway investors.

American Tower Corp. (AMT) fell 1.1 percent to $73.87 yesterday, the smallest first-day drop ever in a stock after a report from Muddy Waters Research, which built its reputation with bearish calls on Asian companies. New Oriental Education & Technology Group Inc., Focus Media Holding Ltd. and Sino-Forest Corp. lost at least 20 percent after previous Muddy Waters notes.

Investors in the operator of cell-phone antennas were unshaken by Block's analysis and firms from Wells Fargo & Co. to Macquarie Group Ltd. said they disagreed. Block said yesterday that American Tower is worth 40 percent less than its share price because it overstated the value of its acquisitions and has poor corporate governance.

"The market is sometimes a lot smarter," William Ferer, who manages about $3 billion, including American Tower shares, at W.H. Reaves & Co. in Jersey City, New Jersey, said in a phone interview. "I took it quite positively that after a full day of digesting this Muddy Waters report the stock was only down a little bit."

The shares rose 1.5 percent to $74.95 at 10:13 a.m. in New York today, erasing yesterday's loss.

Wireless Towers

American Tower, the second-biggest U.S. REIT by market value, owned or leased 22,599 wireless and broadcast communication towers in the U.S. and 33,074 towers internationally as of March 31, according to its most recent quarterly filing. Matt Peterson, a spokesman for the real-estate investment trust, didn't respond to messages seeking comment. The Boston-based firm has a market value of $29.2 billion, data compiled by Bloomberg show.

About 26.3 million shares of the company changed hands yesterday, the most in five years, Bloomberg data show. More than 171,000 put options traded, about 90 times the average for 2013 through last week.

"This stock should be mid-40s," Block said in a Bloomberg Tele! vision interview yesterday. "Our goal with this report was for people to actually read it and I think people are reading it and after they read it, digest it and the company responds, I'm feeling very good about it."

This is the first time Block has targeted a U.S. company. The 37-year-old investor gained fame for his short-selling calls in Asia after regulators halted trading in four of the first five companies he targeted starting in June 2010. Hedge fund manager John Paulson sold his Sino-Forest Corp. stake at a loss after Block said the company overstated its plantation assets. Sino-Forest filed for bankruptcy protection in 2012.

Little Impact

American Tower shares have more than tripled since November 2008. The stock trades at 25.8 times funds from operations, compared with a multiple of 19.8 for Simon Property Group Inc., the largest U.S. REIT by market value.

"I don't think I've ever seen a Muddy Waters report having this little an impact on the market," Ophir Gottlieb, managing director at San Francisco-based Livevol Inc., a provider of options-market analytics, said by phone yesterday. "It just wasn't that big of a deal."

Hedging by people who owned the stock may explain why the shares didn't fall more after put trading surged, Gottlieb said. In the two days before the report, more than 40,000 bearish contracts changed hands each day, compared with a historical average of 1,900, according to data compiled by Bloomberg. The shares slid 4 percent from July 15 to 16.

$250 Million

There is about a $250 million discrepancy between the price American Tower said it paid for towers in Brazil and the actual sale price, the Muddy Waters report said, citing research from financial statements of the companies acquired, Brazil's central bank and six industry sources.

American Tower rejected Block's assertion that it paid around $300 million for the Brazilian communication sites, according to a filing released after the close of trad! ing yeste! rday. The company said the price was about $585 million for the towers, financed by intercompany loans, cash from operations and equity contributions.

American Tower's management shows a "lack of faith" in the company's stock price, Block said in his report, citing share sales from exercised options. The company also faces weak growth overseas, such as India, Ghana and Brazil, according to the note.

"When we have gone into the field and actually rolled up our sleeves and figured out what is going on in many of these emerging markets, the reality is actually very different from what the company tells you," Block said yesterday. "The way that this business is working overseas, it's just not going to work as well as it has in the U.S."

Pedestrian, Foolish

Muddy Waters failed to identify any new challenges facing American Tower, according to Andrew Hamerling, managing partner of Wavelength Asset Management, a New York-based hedge fund.

"This report was pedestrian and foolish," said Hamerling. American Tower is one of the largest holdings in the Wavelength Asset Management fund, he said. "The emerging market risks were always there, and the company had done an admirable job managing those risks and returning value to shareholders."

Wells Fargo's Jennifer Fritzsche said she disagreed with Block's contention that the business faces a major threat from Wi-Fi because data demand is growing, according to a note published yesterday. Investors should buy shares of this "high-class" company, Macquarie's Kevin Smithen said in a report.

The stock has 19 buy ratings, five holds and one sell, according to analyst recommendations compiled by Bloomberg. The shares are down 4.4 percent in 2013.

Real estate investment trusts, whose primary income streams are from properties, don't pay federal income taxes. In exchange, they're required by the Internal Revenue Service to distribute at least 90 percent of their taxable earnings to! sharehol! ders in the form of dividends.

Friday, October 25, 2013

Bank of America’s Truce and 2 Surging Stocks

In this segment from Thursday's episode of The Motley Fool's everything-financials show, Where the Money Is, banking analysts Matt Koppenheffer and David Hanson go through a rapid-fire round of three top headlines. The newsmakers included KKR (NYSE: KKR  ) , Bank of America (NYSE: BAC  ) , Morgan Stanley (NYSE: MS  ) , Lazard (NYSE: LAZ  ) , and Evercore (NYSE: EVR  ) .

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Thursday, October 24, 2013

Canada Stocks Erase Gains as Commodities Offset Rates

Canadian stocks fell, erasing earlier gains after a six-day rally, as a slump in commodity shares overshadowed a Bank of Canada decision to remove its bias toward tightening monetary policy.

BlackPearl Resources Inc. and Suncor Energy Inc., the nation's largest oil producer, fell more than 2.2 percent as crude dropped to its lowest in almost four months. Teck Resources Ltd. (TCK/B) lost 1 percent as copper retreated after surging interest rates eroded the outlook for demand in China. Canadian National Railway Co. and Canadian Pacific Railway Ltd. rallied to all-time highs after posting better-than-estimated earnings.

The Standard & Poor's/TSX Composite Index (SPTSX) fell 4.74 points, or less than 0.1 percent, to 13,243.32 at 4 p.m. in Toronto, erasing an earlier advance of 0.5 percent. The benchmark Canadian equity gauge rallied 2.8 percent in the previous six days, reaching a two-year high.

"The attention is shifting to some concerns on the actual global economy, so that's definitely weighing on oil prices," Youssef Zohny, portfolio manager at Stenner Investment Partners of Richardson GMP Ltd., said by phone from Vancouver. Richardson GMP manages about C$16 billion ($15.4 billion). "Resources and commodities still make up almost half the index, so any weakness in the commodity space should feed its way into the TSX index."

Stocks rose earlier after Bank of Canada Governor Stephen Poloz dropped language about the need for future interest rate increases that has been in place for more than a year, citing greater slack in the economy.

Interest Rates

Policy makers maintained the benchmark rate on overnight loans between commercial banks at 1 percent for the 25th consecutive meeting today, as forecast by all 23 economists in a Bloomberg News survey. Inflation will remain below the 2 percent target until the end of 2015, two quarters longer than forecast in July, with the risks of further weakness taking on "increasing importance," the bank said.

Suncor lost 2.3 percent to C$36.64 and BlackPearl Resources slipped 3.5 percent to C$1.93. West Texas Intermediate crude slumped to its lowest level since June 28 as supplies rose more than expected in the U.S., the biggest oil-consuming country.

Centerra Gold Inc., the operator of the Kumtor mine in Kyrgyzstan, plunged 23 percent to C$4.10 after reports that the central Asian nation's parliament rejected a proposed agreement to give the government a 50 percent stake in the mine.

Teck Resources retreated 1 percent to C$29.42 as copper fell the most in 12 weeks.

China Banks

China's benchmark money-market rate jumped the most since July as the central bank refrained from adding funds to markets. The nation's largest banks tripled the amount of bad loans written off in the first half, ahead of a potential wave of defaults. China is the world's largest consumer of copper and Canada's second-largest trading partner.

"Rising interest rates certainly will have an impact on commodity demand and on Canada. It's indicative of an uneven recovery," said Anish Chopra, fund manager with TD Asset Management Inc. in Toronto. The firm manages about C$216 billion.

Canadian Pacific Railway jumped 10 percent, the most since July 2009, to C$148.53 and Canadian National Railway surged 4.4 percent to C$114.59. Industrials stocks rallied 3.2 percent as a group. Six of 10 industries advanced as trading volume was 20 percent higher compared with the 30-day average.

Rail Ratios

Canadian Pacific posted an operating ratio of 65.9 percent in the third quarter, the lowest in company history, while adjusted earnings of C$1.88 topped analysts' estimates for C$1.71. Operating ratio is a measure of management efficiency with lower numbers preferred.

Canadian National Railway said it will split its stock and plans for a C$1.4 billion share buyback.

Surge Energy Inc. added 2.5 percent to C$6.89 for its highest close since November 2012, after the oil and gas explorer boosted its 2013 exit production to 14,200 barrels of oil equivalent per day, compared with 12,000 previously. The company raised its 2014 production forecasts as well.

Surge yesterday reported two acquisitions in Saskatchewan and Manitoba for a combined C$282 million. The Calgary-based company also raised its dividend 19 percent to 50 Canadian cents a share annually.

Wednesday, October 23, 2013

Is AT&T Oversold At Current Prices?

With shares of AT&T (NYSE:T) trading around $35, is T an OUTPERFORM, WAIT AND SEE, or STAY AWAY? Let's analyze the stock with the relevant sections of our CHEAT SHEET investing framework:

T = Trends for a Stock’s Movement

AT&T is a provider of telecommunications services in the United States and worldwide. Services offered include wireless communications, local exchange services, and long-distance services. AT&T operates in four segments: Wireless, Wireline, Advertising Solutions, and Other. The communications products offered through AT&T's segments reach audiences using just about every widely adopted medium: Internet, voice, television, and mobile. As consumers continue to adopt this technology, providers like AT&T stand to see rising profits.

AT&T has officially sold 9,700 of its wireless towers to Crown Castle International (NYSE:CCI) for $4.85 billion in cash, Reuters reports. The agreement involves Crown Castle purchasing 600 of AT&T's towers and leasing and operating the remaining 9,100 for 28 years. Reuters pointed out that when carriers like AT&T sell their towers, they usually lease back the space from the new operators in order to offer uninterrupted service to customers.

T = Technicals on the Stock Chart are Mixed

AT&T stock has struggled to make positive progress in recent months. The stock is currently trading near mid-prices for the year and looks poised to continue this path. Analyzing the price trend and its strength can be done using key simple moving averages. What are the key moving averages? The 50-day (pink), 100-day (blue), and 200-day (yellow) simple moving averages. As seen in the daily price chart below, AT&T is trading between its key averages, which signal neutral price action in the near-term.

T

(Source: Thinkorswim)

Taking a look at the implied volatility (red) and implied volatility skew levels of AT&T options may help determine if investors are bullish, neutral, or bearish.

Implied Volatility (IV)

30-Day IV Percentile

90-Day IV Percentile

AT&T Options

17.51%

0%

0%

What does this mean? This means that investors or traders are buying a very small amount of call and put options contracts as compared to the last 30 and 90 trading days.

Put IV Skew

Call IV Skew

November Options

Steep

Average

December Options

Steep

Average

As of today, there is an average demand from call buyers or sellers and high demand by put buyers or low demand by put sellers, all neutral to bearish over the next two months. To summarize, investors are buying a very small amount of call and put option contracts and are leaning neutral to bearish over the next two months.

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On the next page, let’s take a look at the earnings and revenue growth rates and the conclusion.

E = Earnings Are Mixed Quarter-Over-Quarter

Rising stock prices are often strongly correlated with rising earnings and revenue growth rates. Also, the last four quarterly earnings announcement reactions help gauge investor sentiment on AT&T’s stock. What do the last four quarterly earnings and revenue growth (Y-O-Y) figures for AT&T look like and more importantly, how did the markets like these numbers?

2013 Q2

2013 Q1

2012 Q4

2012 Q3

Earnings Growth (Y-O-Y)

7.58%

11.67%

-39.59%

3.28%

Revenue Growth (Y-O-Y)

1.58%

-1.46%

0.23%

-0.06%

Earnings Reaction

-1.14%

-5.02%

0.80%

-0.82%

AT&T has seen rising earnings and mixed revenue figures over the last four quarters. From these numbers, the markets have expected more from AT&T’s recent earnings announcements.

P = Weak Relative Performance Versus Peers and Sector

How has AT&T stock done relative to its peers, Verizon (NYSE:VZ), Sprint (NYSE:S), T-Mobile (NASDAQ:TMUS), and sector?

AT&T

Verizon

Sprint

T-Mobile

Sector

Year-to-Date Return

-5.38%

-3.22%

14.59%

55.67%

3.16%

AT&T has been a poor relative performer, year-to-date.

Conclusion

AT&T is a communications and entertainment company that operates around the world. A recent sale of 9,700 of its towers has investors upbeat about the company. The stock has not done well in recent months and is currently trading near mid-prices for the year. Over the last four quarters, earnings have been rising while revenues have been mixed, however, investors have expected more from the company. Relative to its peers and sector, AT&T has been a weak year-to-date performer. WAIT AND SEE what AT&T does this coming quarter.

Tuesday, October 22, 2013

All of These IPOs Are Up at Least 140%

It's been an excellent year for the initial public offerings (IPO) market, with the number of companies going public more than 47% ahead of last year's pace.

The surge in IPO activity has already assured that 2013 will be the best year for new issues since 2007, just before the financial crisis pummeled the markets. That year had 213 IPOs; so far in 2013 there have been 168 IPOs, according to Renaissance Capital.

The dramatic increase in IPOs has the thriving stock market to thank. The S&P 500 Index is up 20.4% year to date, while the Dow Jones Industrial Average is up nearly 17.1%.

"The increase in IPOs is entirely explained by the rising stock market," Jay Ritter, professor of finance at the University of Florida, told USA Today.

The 2013 IPO market has been more than prolific; it's been incredibly profitable.

According to IPOScoop.com, more than 70% of the IPOs of 2013 are trading above their offer price. The 10 best IPOs of 2013, in fact, are all up at least 140% over their offer price.

There we2013 IPO market bounces backre a lot of big first-day gains, too.

Sprouts Farmers Market Inc. (Nasdaq: SFM), which went public Aug. 1, popped 122.8%.
Fast-casual sandwich chain Potbelly Corp. (Nasdaq: PBPB), which had its IPO Oct. 4, shot up 119%. And Noodles & Co. (Nasdaq: NDLS) soared 102% on its first day of trading June 28.

And those gains are sticking. Both Sprouts and Noodles are well above even their first-day closing price, while Potbelly is still up about 80% over its offer price.
IPOs of 2013 Beat S&P 500
They join a growing list of several prominent IPOs from the past couple of years that have done extremely well. For instance, Michael Kors Holdings Ltd. (NYSE: KORS), which had its IPO in December 2011, is trading at over $73 - nearly quadruple its $20 offer price.

Given the unusually positive environment for IPOs this year, it's no surprise the 10 best IPOs of 2013 have done extremely well...

The 10 Best IPOs of 2013

To determine the 10 best IPOs of 2013, we simply looked at the year-to-date performance of each new offer of the year (rankings are based on Wednesday's closing prices). It's quite an impressive crop:

10. QIWI PLC (Nasdaq: QIWI): QIWI provides payment services to 65 million monthly customers in Russia as well as nations once part of the former Soviet Union. QIWI went public May 3 at an offer price of $17 and rose only 8 cents on its first day. Yet now QIWI trades at $40.95 - 140.88% higher than its IPO price.

9. Noodles & Co. (Nasdaq: NDLS): Noodles and Co. is part of the popular fast casual restaurant segment. It went public June 28 at $18 a share and soared 102% on its first day. NDLS currently trades at about $46.05, up 155.83% from its offer price.

8. Marketo Inc. (Nasdaq: MKTO): Marketo is a cloud-based marketing software platform, which puts it smack-dab in the heart of one of the hottest sectors in tech. MKTO went public May 17 with an offer price of $13 a share. It rose 64% on its first day, and currently trades at about $33.87, an increase of just over 160.54% from the offer price.

7. Sprouts Farmers Market (Nasdaq: SFM): This natural and organic food retailer is exploiting the growing obsession Americans have with healthy eating. SFM went public Aug. 1 with an offer price of $18 a share. As noted above, it popped 122.8% on its first day. Sprouts currently trades at about $47, up 161.11% from its IPO price.

6. Textura Corp. (NYSE: TXTR): Textura creates and sells business collaboration software to the commercial construction industry. TXTR went public June 7 at $15 a share and rose 39.6% its first day. The stock currently trades at $40.080, for an increase of 167.2%.

5. ChannelAdvisor Corp. (NYSE: ECOM): ChannelAdvisor provides web-based merchandise management software to businesses like retailers and manufacturers. ECOM (get it, e-commerce) went public May 23 at $14 a share and rose 31.7% on its first day. It currently trades at about $37.57, putting it up 168.36% over its offer price.

4. The ExOne Co. (Nasdaq: XONE): ExOne makes 3D printers and 3D printing products, and anyone who follows tech knows the enormous potential of 3D printing. The company went public February 7 at $18 a share and rose 47.3% on its first day. XONE currently trades at about $51.83, for a total gain of 187.94%.

3. Stemline Therapeutics Inc. (Nasdaq: STML): This biotech develops drugs that target cancer stem cells and tumors. Stemline went public January 29 at $10 a share and rose just 11.78% on its first day. But STML has climbed steadily since, and currently trades at $37.46, up 274.6% from its IPO price.

2. Insys Therapeutics Inc. (Nasdaq: INSY): Insys is a biotech seeking to capitalize on the growing interest in medical marijuana by using a generic form of THC to create drugs to treat cancer pain. INSY had its IPO May 2 with an offer price of $8 a share. The stock rose 19.75% on its first day of trading. But investors really warmed up to Insys later; it currently trades at about $37.54, a 369.25% increase over the offer price.

1. Aratana Therapeutics Inc. (Nasdaq: PETX): Aratana is a biotech that focuses on developing prescription medications for pets, a smart way to tap into the $20 billion annual worldwide animal health market. PETX went public June 27 at $6 a share and rose 37.6% on its first day. Aratana currently trades at $28.18 a share, for a list-topping increase of 369.67%.

While this group of stocks may be the best IPOs of 2013 in terms of returns, other new offers may be better additions to your portfolio. Don't miss this free report on the eight IPOs of 2013 that should be on every investor's radar...

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2013 Pricings

Sunday, October 20, 2013

Top 5 Dividend Stocks For 2014

Despite recent bumps, the Dow Jones Industrial Average and the Standard & Poor's 500 indexes rose roughly 12%, excluding reinvested dividends, in the first half of 2013. The performance of many broker-dealers, though, sharply outpaced the major indexes.

The iShares Dow Jones U.S. broker-dealer ETF (IAI) moved up an impressive 28% in the same period, with some firms topping returns of 40%.

The SPDR S&P Capital Markets ETF (KCE) also outpaced the major indexes moving up roughly 18%.

Wirehouse broker-dealers had mixed results. Shares of Morgan Stanley (MS), which recently said it would soon purchase its final stake in the Morgan Stanley-Smith Barney joint venture, has risen 25.5% this year.

Wells Fargo (WFC) has improved about 18%.

Bank of America-Merrill Lynch (BAC), however, moved up just 7.5%, while UBS (UBS) ticked up only 5%.

The independent broker-dealers had a stellar first half. Charles Schwab (SCHW), for example, soared 41%, as did TD Ameritrade (AMTD).

Top 5 Dividend Stocks For 2014: SuperValu Inc.(SVU)

SUPERVALU INC., together with its subsidiaries, operates retail food stores in the United States. Its stores offer grocery, general merchandise, health and beauty care, pharmacy, and fuel products. The company operates stores under the Acme, Albertsons, Cub Foods, Farm Fresh, Hornbacher?s, Jewel-Osco, Lucky, Shaw?s, Shop ?n Save, Shoppers Food & Pharmacy, and Star Market banners, as well as in-store pharmacies under the Osco and Sav-on banners. It operates approximately 2,394 traditional and hard-discount retail food stores, including 899 licensed Save-A-Lot stores. The company also offers supply chain services, which include wholesale distribution of products to independent retailers, including single and multiple grocery store independent operators, regional and national chains, mass merchants, and the military customers, as well as provides logistics support services. SUPERVALU was founded in 1871 and is based in Eden Prairie, Minnesota.

Advisors' Opinion:
  • [By Rich Duprey]

    Bought out earlier this year from SUPERVALU (NYSE: SVU  ) by private equity firm Cerberus Capital Management, Albertsons has decided to forgo compiling individual customer shopping habits through loyalty cards at all of its brands, including Acme, Jewel-Osco, Shaw's/Star Market, and its namesake stores. Shoppers might not be aware of the treasure trove of data contained in those plastic store cards you swipe at the beginning of your checkout procedure, but they're a marketer's dream.

  • [By Selena Maranjian]

    More than a handful of small-cap companies�had strong performances over the past year. SUPERVALU (NYSE: SVU  ) surged 200%. The company has suspended its dividend, in order to cut costs and more effectively compete in its low-margin industry, where it also faces growing competition from Wal-Mart�and other discounters. Some rivals such as Whole Foods Market�have been able to maintain higher margins by offering organic produce and higher-end products. SUPERVALU has been reshaping itself and selling off some brands, and apparently many investors are hopeful.

  • [By Dan Caplinger]

    Finally, grocery store operator SUPERVALU (NYSE: SVU  ) has soared 17% following its own favorable earnings report. The company sold off many of its most popular chains to private-equity firm Cerberus Capital earlier this year, but SUPERVALU's efforts to cut its costs and capitalize on its remaining chains have borne fruit as the company reported adjusted profits that more than doubled estimates. Going forward, the grocery industry remains challenging, as same-store sales declines reflect. But in the midst of its reorganization, SUPERVALU appears to be moving in the right direction.

  • [By Dan Caplinger]

    On Wednesday, SUPERVALU� (NYSE: SVU  ) will release its latest quarterly results. The key to making smart investment decisions on stocks reporting earnings is to anticipate how they'll do before they announce results, leaving you fully prepared to respond quickly to whatever inevitable surprises arise. That way, you'll be less likely to make an uninformed, knee-jerk reaction to news that turns out to be exactly the wrong move.

Top 5 Dividend Stocks For 2014: Agrium Inc.(AGU)

Agrium Inc., together with its subsidiaries, produces and markets agricultural nutrients, industrial products, and specialty products worldwide, as well as involves in the retail supply of agricultural products and services in North and South Americas. The company?s Retail segment markets crop nutrient products, including nitrogen, phosphate, potash, sulphur, and micronutrients; crop protection products, such as herbicides, fungicides, adjuvants, and insecticides; and seeds. This segment also offers agronomic services, as well as product application, soil and leaf tissue testing and analysis, and crop scouting services. This segment operates 1,192 outlets in the United States, Canada, Australia, Argentina, Chile, and Uruguay. The company?s Wholesale segment produces, markets, and distributes nitrogen, phosphate, potash, sulphate, and other crop nutrient products for agricultural and industrial customers. This segment also owns and operates facilities that upgrade ammonia t o other nitrogen products, such as urea, nitric acid, and ammonium nitrate, as well as provides Rainbow plant food products. Agrium?s Advanced Technologies segment produces and markets controlled-release crop nutrients and micronutrients for the agriculture, specialty agriculture, professional turf, horticulture, and consumer lawn and garden markets. The company was formerly known as Cominco Fertilizers Ltd. and changed its name to Agrium Inc. in 1995. Agrium Inc. was founded in 1931 and is headquartered in Calgary, Canada.

Advisors' Opinion:
  • [By CJ Capital Research]

    Potash is an abundant commodity with enough global deposits to last essentially forever. However, Potash deposits that are economically minable are concentrated in only a handful of countries and dominated by a handful of producers like Uralkali, Belaruskali, K+S, Potash Corp , Mosaic (MOS), Agrium (AGU), and Intrepid Potash (IPI).

  • [By Paul Ausick]

    BPC had been one of two major marketing groups for potash. The other, Canpotex, is based in Canada and markets potash production from Potash Corp. of Saskatchewan Inc. (NYSE: POT), Agrium Inc. (NYSE: AGU) and the Canadian arm of Mosaic Co. (NYSE: MOS). The two marketing organizations (cartels?) controlled about two-thirds of the world�� production of potash and had for years maintained high prices for potash by limiting production.

  • [By Marc Bastow]

    Agricultural and industrial nutrients producer Agrium (AGU) raised its quarterly dividend 50% to 75 cents per share, payable on Oct. 17 to shareholders of record as of Sept. 30.
    AGU Dividend Yield: 3.54%

Top China Companies For 2014: TAL International Group Inc.(TAL)

TAL International Group, Inc. engages in the lease of intermodal containers and chassis. It operates in two segments, Equipment Leasing and Equipment Trading. The Equipment Leasing segment involves in the acquisition, lease, re-lease, and sale of various intermodal transportation equipment, such as dry freight containers, which are used for general cargo, including manufactured component parts, consumer staples, electronics, and apparel; refrigerated containers that are used for perishable items, such as fresh and frozen foods; and special containers, which are used for heavy and oversized cargo, such as marble slabs, building products, and machinery. It also leases chassis, which are used for the transportation of containers and tank containers that are used to transport bulk liquid products, such as chemicals, as well as finances port equipment, which includes container cranes, reach stackers, and other related equipment. The Equipment Trading segment purchases container s from shipping line customers and other sellers of containers, and resells these containers to container traders and users of containers for storage or one-way shipment. As of December 31, 2009, it had a fleet of 701,946 containers and chassis, including 31,137 containers under management for third parties, representing 1,139,523 twenty-foot equivalent units (TEU). The company was founded in 1963 and is headquartered in Purchase, New York.

Advisors' Opinion:
  • [By Brian Pacampara]

    Based on the aggregated intelligence of 180,000-plus investors participating in Motley Fool CAPS, the Fool's free investing community, freight container lessor TAL International (NYSE: TAL  ) has earned a coveted five-star ranking.

  • [By ABN]

    TAL International Group (TAL) is one of the world's largest lessors of intermodal freight containers for the shipping business with 17 offices in 11 countries and approximately 230 third-party container depot facilities in 40 countries. TAL's fleet consists of approximately 1,238,000 containers and 2,031,000 twenty-foot equivalent units (TEU).

  • [By Seth Jayson]

    Margins matter. The more TAL International Group (NYSE: TAL  ) keeps of each buck it earns in revenue, the more money it has to invest in growth, fund new strategic plans, or (gasp!) distribute to shareholders. Healthy margins often separate pretenders from the best stocks in the market. That's why we check up on margins at least once a quarter in this series. I'm looking for the absolute numbers, so I can compare them to current and potential competitors, and any trend that may tell me how strong TAL International Group's competitive position could be.

Top 5 Dividend Stocks For 2014: United Parcel Service Inc.(UPS)

United Parcel Service, Inc., a package delivery company, provides transportation, logistics, and financial services in the United States and internationally. It operates in three segments: U.S. Domestic Package, International Package, and Supply Chain & Freight. The U.S. Domestic Package segment engages in the time-definite delivery of letters, documents, and packages in the United States. The International Package segment offers air and ground delivery of small packages and letters to approximately 220 countries and territories, including shipments outside the United States, as well as shipments with either origin or distribution outside the United States; export services; and domestic services move shipments within a country?s borders. The Supply Chain & Freight segment provides forwarding and logistics services, such as supply chain design and management, freight distribution, customs brokerage, mail, and consulting services in approximately 195 countries and territorie s; and less-than-truckload and truckload services to customers in North America. In addition, the company offers various technology solutions for automated shipping, visibility, and billing; information technology systems and distribution facilities to various industries comprising healthcare, technology, and consumer/retail; and a portfolio of financial services that provides customers with short-term working capital, government guaranteed lending, global trade financing, credit cards, and export financing. It operates a fleet of approximately 99,800 package cars, vans, tractors, and motorcycles; an air fleet of 527 aircraft; and 33,800 containers used to transport cargo in its aircraft. The company was founded in 1907 and is headquartered in Atlanta, Georgia.

Advisors' Opinion:
  • [By Dan Caplinger]

    United Parcel Service (NYSE: UPS  ) will release its quarterly report on Tuesday, and in a world in which package delivery and Internet commerce go hand in hand, you'd think that everything would be rosy for the carrier. Yet the UPS earnings preannouncement earlier this month suggested otherwise, raising some doubts about the company's immediate future and sending shares down as a result.

  • [By Chad Tracy]

    Unlike transportation industry titans FedEx (NYSE: FDX) or UPS (NYSE: UPS), C.H. Robinson does not own a fleet of trucks that transport goods. Instead, it specializes in logistics. Other companies hire C.H. Robinson to make their transportation services more efficient.

  • [By Aimee Duffy]

    Natural gas is too cheap and too useful to ignore, and it is making inroads in the world of long-distance trucking. In this video, Fool.com contributor Aimee Duffy talks about the efforts of UPS (NYSE: UPS  ) and Wal-Mart (NYSE: WMT  ) �to take advantage of this growing movement.

Top 5 Dividend Stocks For 2014: Sysco Corporation(SYY)

Sysco Corporation, through its subsidiaries, distributes food and related products primarily to the foodservice or food-away-from-home industry in North America and Europe. The company offers a line of frozen foods, such as meats, fully prepared entrees, fruits, vegetables, and desserts; a line of canned and dry foods; fresh meats, custom-cut fresh steaks, other meat, seafood, and poultry; dairy products; beverage products; imported specialties; and fresh produce. It also supplies various non-food items, including paper products, such as disposable napkins, plates, and cups; tableware, which include china and silverware; cookware comprising pots, pans, and utensils; restaurant and kitchen equipment and supplies; and cleaning supplies. In addition, the company offers personal care guest amenities, equipment, housekeeping supplies, room accessories, and textiles to the lodging industry. It serves restaurants, hospitals and nursing homes, schools and colleges, hotels and mote ls, lodging establishments, and other foodservice customers. Sysco Corporation was founded in 1969 and is headquartered in Houston, Texas.

Advisors' Opinion:
  • [By Holly LaFon]

    The disciplined investors at Yacktman Funds have stuck with the world�� highest quality businesses, most of which offer products or services integral to society. Their top holdings are PepsiCo (PEP), News Corp Cl. A (NWS), Procter & Gamble (PG), Microsoft (MSFT), C.R. Bard (BCR), Cisco Systems (CSCO), Sysco Corporation (SYY), Coca-Cola (KO), Pfizer (PFE) and U.S. Bancorp (USB).

Saturday, October 19, 2013

Do You Know the Top Stocks of the Last Decade?

Right now, five stocks have delivered 10-year returns north of 4,500%. That's an annual return of at least 46% -- roughly tripling your investment every two years. How many of these top stocks can you name?

AAPL Chart

AAPL data by YCharts.

Let's start at the bottom of the list.

Back in 2003, Illumina (NASDAQ: ILMN  ) was a micro-cap specialist in genetic testing with negative earnings and more debt than cash. The company almost went under while waiting for the genetic-testing market to mature. Now it's a hot name in a red-hot health-care market. Long-term shareholders have pocketed an outsized 4,600% return in 10 years, while the Dow Jones Industrial Average (DJINDICES: ^DJI  ) gained just 65%.

How's that for market-beating performance? But wait -- it only gets better.

Everybody knows Apple (NASDAQ: AAPL  ) . Under charismatic leader Steve Jobs, the Cupertino company transformed from a down-and-out wannabe computer-systems builder into a media-player giant, then a leading music-seller, and finally the smartphone-and-tablet powerhouse you see today. It's a classic rags-to-riches story that created a global powerhouse. The result: a 4,800% return.

Then there's coffee vendor Green Mountain Coffee Roasters (NASDAQ: GMCR  ) , which built an empire out of brilliant acquisitions. The company bought the rights to the Keurig single-serve coffee machines, along with the rest of the Keurig company, and that $160 million investment was the main reason for Green Mountain's 5,100% 10-year climb.

The next name is still a small cap. WisdomTree is an investment firm that specializes in managing exchange-traded funds. It may only be the fifth-largest player in this field, but it's an up-and-comer with a full head of steam. It manages more than $23 billion of investor assets nowadays, up from just $1 billion in 2006. That's good for an astounding 9,600% decade-long return.

The long-term investment king should be familiar to longtime Fool readers. Energy drink giant Monster Beverage (NASDAQ: MNST  ) , formerly known as Hansen Natural, crushed all comers with a 22,200% return. That's nearly 72% per year on a sustained 10-year run, though the pace slowed down considerably in the back half of this jaw-dropping jump. Monster shares have "only" tripled in the last five years, which sounds weak only when compared to the nearly 60-bagger return of the previous five years.

But you know what? That uneven performance is hardly unique to Monster. With the notable exception of Green Mountain, all of these huge gainers started out quickly and slowed down in recent years. Compare and contrast the squiggles on these two charts, detailing the front and back halves of the last decade:

AAPL Chart

AAPL data by YCharts.

AAPL Chart

AAPL data by YCharts.

As it turns out, it's far easier to beat the Dow by a ridiculous margin when you're a tiny, nimble upstart. Even Green Mountain's fantastic run is slowing down, and the stock trades well below all-time highs that were set in 2011. In a span of just nine months, the stock lost 80% of its value as the Keurig money-printing press appeared to break down. Of course, the stock has more than quadrupled again from those 2012 lows, but there's no such thing as a free lunch in the stock market. Every investment comes with a certain amount of risk -- even the strongest performers of years gone by.

So who's the next Monster Beverage or Green Mountain for the 10 years ahead? Nobody knows, but one thing is for certain: It's none of these best backward-looking stocks.

The next decade's biggest gainers will be today's no-name upstarts or beaten-down near-bankruptcy survivors. Out of this crop of long-term winners, Apple was by far the largest in 2003 with a $7.3 billion market cap. The other guys weren't even on the radar, uninvestable micro-caps one and all. Here's a snapshot of their market caps in the summer of 2003, with Apple removed for clarity:

GMCR Market Cap Chart

GMCR Market Cap data by YCharts

If you want to win big, you just gotta start small.

Is Apple still a buy?
There's no doubt that Apple is at the center of technology's largest revolution ever and that longtime shareholders have been handsomely rewarded. However, there is a debate raging as to whether Apple remains a buy. The Motley Fool's senior technology analyst and managing bureau chief, Eric Bleeker, is prepared to fill you in on reasons to buy and reasons to sell Apple, as well as what opportunities remain for the company (and your portfolio) going forward. To get instant access to his latest thoughts on Apple, simply click here now.

Thursday, October 17, 2013

Verizon Shares Set to Rise on Upbeat Earnings

Earns Verizon (In this Sunday, April 7, 2013, photo, a Verizon Studio booth is seen at MetLife Stadium, in East Rutherford, N.J.Mel Evans/AP NEW YORK -- Verizon Communications on Thursday posted stronger- than-expected third-quarter earnings and revenue on strong wireless growth, sending its shares up 2.4 percent in early trade. While the company's wireless customer growth numbers were slightly below Wall Street estimates, its Verizon Wireless venture with Vodafone Group (VOD) posted good profit and revenue growth as customers spent more on their services. "The numbers were fine but it wasn't a blowout quarter. It was a good third quarter," said Hudson Square analyst Todd Rethemeier. Verizon Wireless added 927,000 net retail subscribers in the quarter, compared with Wall Street expectations of about 1 million customers, according to eight analysts, with estimates ranging from 900,000 to 1.2 million. Verizon has agreed to buy out Vodafone's 45 percent share of the mobile venture. Verizon (VZ) said it expects wireless customer growth to improve sequentially in the fourth quarter. Verizon reported a third-quarter profit of $2.2 billion, or 78 cents a share, compared with $1.59 billion, or 56 cents a share, a year ago. Excluding unusual items, Verizon earned 77 cents a share in the quarter, compared with Wall Street expectations of 74 cents, according to Thomson Reuters I/B/E/S. Revenue rose 4.4 to $30.28 billion from $29.01 billion. Wall Street expected $30.16 billion. Its wireless profit margin was 51.1 percent, based on earnings before interest, taxes, depreciation and amortization as a percentage of service revenue, and above its target range of 49 percent to 50 percent for the full year. Rethemeier said the profit margin would likely come down in the fourth quarter due to steep holiday season costs, since the company kept its wireless margin target for the year despite the strong third-quarter number. A 7.2 percent increase in wireless revenue for the quarter was offset by a slower 4.3 percent rise in wireline revenue. Verizon shares rose 2.4 percent to $48.40 in premarket trading after closing at $47.25 in the regular New York Stock Exchange session.

Stock of companies being bought often jump

USA TODAY markets reporter Matt Krantz answers a different reader question every weekday. To submit a question, e-mail Matt at mkrantz@usatoday.com.

Q: What happens to the shares of acquiring companies after buyouts?

A: When a company is bought out, it's often a bonanza for its shareholders. Shares of acquired companies tend to soar in most cases.

It's been a bonanza for companies being bought this year. So far, companies are paying 20% above the current stock prices for companies being bought, says Richard Peterson of S&P Capital IQ. Seeing a 20% gain overnight is epic and something many investors try to anticipate.

But what about the flipside of the situation, or what happens to the companies doing the buying? It's usually less positive for the investors in the companies that buy the target.

A study analyzed buyouts between 1980 and 2001. It turns out investors in the acquiring company lost $25.2 million on average after the buyout deal was announced, according to the research by Sara Moeller of the University of Pittsburgh and her co-authors.

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That trend appears to holding this year. One of the biggest deals of the year, Microsoft's buy of part of smartphone maker Nokia for roughly $7 billion, announced on September 2 . Shares of Nokia soared 31% on the news, but shares of Microsoft dropped nearly 5%, even though investors were somewhat expecting the deal. Shares of Microsoft, though, have recovered since.

Investors can't exactly bank that stocks will fall by a large amount after an acquisition. Biotech firm Regeneron saw its stock fall 0.4% after announcing its plans to buy a production facility from Dell.

Wednesday, October 16, 2013

Advisory expansion at Schwab helps 3Q profits climb

schwab, third quarter, revenue, profits, earnings Bloomberg News

Third-quarter profits grew at The Charles Schwab Corp. as the firm worked to expand its advisory services division, company officials said Tuesday.

Schwab increased its profits by 17.4% to $290 million over the comparable quarter in 2012, according to a statement.

The earnings reflect Schwab's continued evolution from a pioneer of discount brokerage to a provider of broader advisory services, Schwab chief executive Walt Bettinger said in the statement.

Nearly half the firm's $2.15 trillion in client assets are in an advisory program, a 17% increase from last year. Schwab provides custody services for independent financial advisers in addition to its retail-brokerage and pooled-investments businesses.

“These client results supported double-digit percentage increases in all three of our main revenue sources and 15% overall revenue growth versus the year-ago quarter,” Mr. Bettinger said. “Even with the continued head wind created by an interest rate environment that remains at historic lows, our third-quarter revenues surpassed all our prior quarterly results save the extraordinary spike we experienced at the height of the internet bubble.”

The results helped push shares of the company ahead $1.02, or 4.63% to $23.03 on Tuesday amid a broad stock market decline.

Despite the results, Schwab has suffered some setbacks.

Schwab's

Monday, October 14, 2013

Teradata shares drop after hours on cut outlook

SAN FRANCISCO (MarketWatch) — Teradata Corp. shares fell late Monday after the data-services company cut its outlook for the year.

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Shares of Teradata (TDC)  fell 11% to $46.65 on heavy volume after the company said it now expects adjusted full-year earnings of $2.70 to $2.80 a share. Analysts surveyed by FactSet expect earnings of $2.85 a share.

Best Growth Stocks To Watch For 2014

Teradata also expects adjusted third-quarter earnings of 69 cents to 70 cents a share on revenue of $665 million. Analysts forecast 69 cents a share on revenue of $700 million.

Demand Media Inc. (DMD)  shares declined 0.3% to $5.84 in light volume after the company said it had accepted the resignation of its chief executive, Richard Rosenblatt, effective Oct. 31.

Yahoo Inc. (YHOO)  said late Thursday it will accept questions from the public during its earnings call late Tuesday that are tweeted with the hashtag #YHOOearnings. Shares rose less than 0.1% to $34.02 in moderate volume.

Shares of Resource Capital Corp. (RSO)  declined 3.8% to $5.82 in moderate volume after the real-estate investment trust said it would launch a $100 million offering in notes due 2018.

Sunday, October 13, 2013

Hot Blue Chip Stocks For 2014

Stocks took no time getting back to work after the long weekend today as the Dow Jones Industrial Average (DJINDICES: ^DJI  ) was flying out of the gate this morning. The blue chips were up more than 200 points before 10:30 a.m., but cooled off later in the day to finish up 106 points, or 0.7%. The gains were driven by two key pieces of economic data showing strong jumps and central banks in Europe and Japan indicating that lax monetary policies will remain in place. The gains were enough to give the Dow another all-time closing high.

Coming out before markets opened, the Case-Shiller 20-City Index showed the biggest gain in home prices in seven years, jumping 10.9% in March from a year ago, ahead of expectations of 10.2% gain. Though the news is two months old, it shows that the spring home-buying season has added further fuel to the housing recovery. Prices in the west including Phoenix, Las Vegas, and San Francisco grew the fastest.

Later in the morning, the consumer confidence report from the Conference Board showed an increase from 68.1 in April to 76.2 in May, easily topping projections of 72.5. The rating was the highest for the month of May since before the recession and its measurement of consumer attitudes hit its highest mark since February 2008.

Hot Blue Chip Stocks For 2014: Visa Inc.(V)

Visa Inc., a payments technology company, engages in the operation of retail electronic payments network worldwide. It facilitates commerce through the transfer of value and information among financial institutions, merchants, consumers, businesses, and government entities. The company owns and operates VisaNet, a global processing platform that provides transaction processing services. It also offers a range of payments platforms, which enable credit, charge, deferred debit, debit, and prepaid payments, as well as cash access for consumers, businesses, and government entities. The company provides its payment platforms under the Visa, Visa Electron, PLUS, and Interlink brand names. In addition, it offers value-added services, including risk management, issuer processing, loyalty, dispute management, value-added information, and CyberSource-branded services. The company is headquartered in San Francisco, California.

Advisors' Opinion:
  • [By WALLSTCHEATSHEET.COM]

    Visa facilitates transactions for consumers, companies, governments, and other entities around the world. The company recently reported earnings that have sat really well with investors. The stock has been steadily trending higher and is now trading near all-time high prices. Over the last four quarters, earnings and revenue figures have been increasing which has really pleased investors. Relative to its strong peers and sector, Visa has been an average year-to-date performer. Look for Visa to OUTPERFORM.

  • [By Sean Williams, Travis Hoium, and Alex Planes]

    In that spirit, we three Fools have banded together to find the market's best and worst stocks, which we'll rate on�The Motley Fool's CAPS�system as outperformers or underperformers. We'll be accountable for every pick based on the sum of our knowledge and the balance of our decisions. Today, we'll be discussing Visa (NYSE: V  ) , the world's largest electronic payment processing network.

  • [By Amanda Alix]

    Credit card use is up, and that's great news for industry heavies Visa (NYSE: V  ) and MasterCard (NYSE: MA  ) , both of which have been on a tear over the past few month. To make things even sweeter, delinquencies have dropped, too, and now stand at a level not seen since 1990.

Hot Blue Chip Stocks For 2014: Colgate-Palmolive Company(CL)

Colgate-Palmolive Company, together with its subsidiaries, manufactures and markets consumer products worldwide. It offers oral care products, including toothpaste, toothbrushes, and mouth rinses, as well as dental floss and pharmaceutical products for dentists and other oral health professionals; personal care products, such as liquid hand soap, shower gels, bar soaps, deodorants, antiperspirants, shampoos, and conditioners; and home care products comprising laundry and dishwashing detergents, fabric conditioners, household cleaners, bleaches, dishwashing liquids, and oil soaps. The company offers its oral, personal, and home care products under the Colgate Total, Colgate Max Fresh, Colgate 360 Advisors' Opinion:

  • [By Ong Kang Wei]

    Another example of such a product is Colgate-Palmolive (CL)'s Colgate toothpaste. I do not think I have to elaborate much here. Toothpaste is needed in our everyday life, and we will definitely have to buy more toothpaste after we have finished using a packet of it, ensuring that Colgate gets more and more sales over the years.

  • [By Travis Hoium]

    Colgate-Palmolive
    Toothpaste and toothbrushes may not be exciting business, but it's consistent and consumers tend to develop habits they rarely break. Once they find a toothpaste brand they like, it could be years before they try another one. That leads to another incredibly consistent business for Colgate-Palmolive (NYSE: CL  ) , one that has paid back investors with a dividend since 1895. �

Top 10 Performing Stocks To Buy For 2014: Apple Inc.(AAPL)

Apple Inc., together with subsidiaries, designs, manufactures, and markets personal computers, mobile communication and media devices, and portable digital music players, as well as sells related software, services, peripherals, networking solutions, and third-party digital content and applications worldwide. The company sells its products worldwide through its online stores, retail stores, direct sales force, third-party wholesalers, resellers, and value-added resellers. In addition, it sells third-party Mac, iPhone, iPad, and iPod compatible products, including application software, printers, storage devices, speakers, headphones, and other accessories and peripherals through its online and retail stores; and digital content and applications through the iTunes Store. The company sells its products to consumer, small and mid-sized business, education, enterprise, government, and creative markets. As of September 25, 2010, it had 317 retail stores, including 233 stores in the United States and 84 stores internationally. The company, formerly known as Apple Computer, Inc., was founded in 1976 and is headquartered in Cupertino, California.

Advisors' Opinion:
  • [By Paul Ausick]

    The world�� largest wireless carrier, China Mobile Ltd. (NYSE: CHL), reportedly has�awarded initial contracts for the build-out of China�� first 4G wireless network. This is especially good news for Apple Inc. (NASDAQ: AAPL), which has been trying to reach an agreement with the Chinese carrier to offer the iPhone to China Mobile�� customers.

Hot Blue Chip Stocks For 2014: Philip Morris International Inc(PM)

Philip Morris International Inc., through its subsidiaries, engages in the manufacture and sale of cigarettes and other tobacco products in markets outside of the United States. Its international product brand line comprises Marlboro, Merit, Parliament, Virginia Slims, L&M, Chesterfield, Bond Street, Lark, Muratti, Next, Philip Morris, and Red & White. The company also offers its products under the A Mild, Dji Sam Soe, and A Hijau in Indonesia; Diana in Italy; Optima and Apollo-Soyuz in the Russian Federation; Morven Gold in Pakistan; Boston in Colombia; Belmont, Canadian Classics, and Number 7 in Canada; Best and Classic in Serbia; f6 in Germany; Delicados in Mexico; Assos in Greece; and Petra in the Czech Republic and Slovakia. It operates primarily in the European Union, Eastern Europe, the Middle East, Africa, Asia, Canada, and Latin America. The company is based in New York, New York.

Advisors' Opinion:
  • [By Roberto Pedone]

    One stock that insiders are buying up a large amount of here is Philip Morris International (PM), which manufactures and sells cigarettes and other tobacco products in markets outside the U.S. Insiders are buying this stock into modest strength, since shares are up 5.5% so far in 2013.

    Philip Morris International has a market cap of $143 billion and an enterprise value of $168 billion. This stock trades at a reasonable valuation, with a trailing price-to-earnings of 17.25 and a forward price-to-earnings of 14.6. Its estimated growth rate for this year is 4.2%, and for next year it's pegged at 11.8%. This is not a cash-rich company, since the total cash position on its balance sheet is $3.59 billion and its total debt is $25.50 billion. This stock currently sports a dividend yield of 3.8%.

    A director just bought 123,500 shares, or about $11.01 million worth of stock, at $89.15 per share.

    From a technical perspective, PM is currently trending below both its 50-day and 200-day moving averages, which is bearish. This stock has been downtrending over the last two months and change, with shares dropping from its high of $95.38 to its recent low of $85.21 a share. During that move, shares of PM have been mostly making lower highs and lower lows, which is bearish technical price action.

    If you're bullish on PM, then I would look for long-biased trades as long as this stock is trending above some near-term support at $87.65 to $87 and then once it takes out its 200-day at $88.72 and its 50-day at $89.25 a share with high volume. Look for a sustained move or close above those levels with volume that hits near or above its three-month average action of 5.10 million shares. If we get that move soon, then PM will set up to re-test or possibly take out its next major overhead resistance levels at $91.40 to $92.26 a share. Any high-volume move above those levels will then put $94 to $95 into range for shares of PM.

     

  • [By Efficient Alpha]

    Philip Morris International (PM) is a favorite of mine, not only for its 4% dividend but also for its protection against global inflationary pressures. The company can pass through higher commodity prices and smokers will keep coming back for more. The company has 16% of the international market and is making strong progress in China. Asia accounts for 36% of sales, followed by the EMEA region (27%), the EU (26%) and Latin America/Canada (11%). Shares have posted an annual return of 15% since its spinoff in 2008.

Hot Blue Chip Stocks For 2014: International Business Machines Corporation(IBM)

International Business Machines Corporation (IBM) provides information technology (IT) products and services worldwide. Its Global Technology Services segment provides IT infrastructure and business process services, including strategic outsourcing, process, integrated technology, and maintenance services, as well as technology-based support services. The company?s Global Business Services segment offers consulting and systems integration, and application management services. Its Software segment offers middleware and operating systems software, such as WebSphere software to integrate and manage business processes; information management software for database and enterprise content management, information integration, data warehousing, business analytics and intelligence, performance management, and predictive analytics; Tivoli software for identity management, data security, storage management, and datacenter automation; Lotus software for collaboration, messaging, and so cial networking; rational software to support software development for IT and embedded systems; business intelligence software, which provides querying and forecasting tools; SPSS predictive analytics software to predict outcomes and act on that insight; and operating systems software. Its Systems and Technology segment provides computing and storage solutions, including servers, disk and tape storage systems and software, point-of-sale retail systems, and microelectronics. The company?s Global Financing segment provides lease and loan financing to end users and internal clients; commercial financing to dealers and remarketers of IT products; and remanufacturing and remarketing services. It serves financial services, public, industrial, distribution, communications, and general business sectors. The company was formerly known as Computing-Tabulating-Recording Co. and changed its name to International Business Machines Corporation in 1924. IBM was founded in 1910 and is based in Armonk, New York.

Advisors' Opinion:
  • [By Alex Planes]

    Tabulating a dynasty
    IBM (NYSE: IBM  ) was created on June 16, 1911, as the result of a merger between three technically inclined manufacturing businesses. It was known as the Computing-Tabulating-Recording Company until 1924 -- the same year that Ford built its 10 millionth Model T. CTR, as it was sometimes known, traced its origins to an inventor named Herman Hollerith, who devised a punched-card tabulator that offered tremendous time savings for enterprises (like the U.S. Census) engaged in the tedium of tallying up vast quantities of data. However, it wasn't Hollerith who built IBM into the business-services behemoth you know today. Much of IBM's character was formed during the tenure of the two Thomas Watsons, a legendary father-and-son executive pair that guided the company for more than half a century. You can read more about IBM's origins and its Watson-driven rise to prominence when you click on this link.

Hot Blue Chip Stocks For 2014: McDonald's Corporation(MCD)

McDonald?s Corporation, together with its subsidiaries, operates as a worldwide foodservice retailer. It franchises and operates McDonald?s restaurants that offer various food items, soft drinks, coffee, and other beverages. As of December 31, 2009, the company operated 32,478 restaurants in 117 countries, of which 26,216 were operated by franchisees; and 6,262 were operated by the company. McDonald?s Corporation was founded in 1948 and is based in Oak Brook, Illinois.

Advisors' Opinion:
  • [By John Maxfield]

    Blue-chip stocks are mixed in intraday trading following the release of disappointing housing data and downbeat quarterly results from McDonald's (NYSE: MCD  ) . With roughly an hour left in the trading session, the Dow Jones Industrial Average (DJINDICES: ^DJI  ) is up a negligible two points, while the S&P 500 (SNPINDEX: ^GSPC  ) is up by 0.2%.

  • [By Jeremy Bowman]

    Some minimum-wage workers at McDonald's (NYSE: MCD  ) joined with fellow fast-food employees and walked off the job today, demanding a $15-an-hour wage in a weeklong protest. The minimum-wage issue appears to be gaining traction after the D.C. Council recently passed a law designed to make Wal-Mart pay its future workers there a minimum of $12.50 an hour, and President Obama's recent statement that the widening income gap was damaging the country. McDonald's has also been the target of much derision and mockery since a sample budget for employees, which among other things implies that a worker needs two jobs, found its way to the media. Shares of Mickey D's were unaffected by the strike, falling 0.2%, but the issue will continue to circulate and could become a greater concern.

  • [By WALLSTCHEATSHEET.COM]

    McDonald�� is a well-recognized company that fulfills cravings and demand for quick and delicious food choices that many consumers across the globe enjoy. The company continues to adopt new technologies in order to enhance their customer experience. The stock has been rising in recent years but is now pulling back a bit as investors book gains. Over the last four quarters, earnings and revenues have been on the rise, however, investors have expected a little more from the company. Relative to its peers and sector, McDonald’s has been an average year-to-date performer. WAIT AND SEE what McDonald’s does this quarter.

Hot Blue Chip Stocks For 2014: Chevron Corporation(CVX)

Chevron Corporation, through its subsidiaries, engages in petroleum, chemicals, mining, power generation, and energy operations worldwide. It operates in two segments, Upstream and Downstream. The Upstream segment involves in the exploration, development, and production of crude oil and natural gas; processing, liquefaction, transportation, and regasification associated with liquefied natural gas; transportation of crude oil through pipelines; and transportation, storage, and marketing of natural gas, as well as holds interest in a gas-to-liquids project. The Downstream segment engages in the refining of crude oil into petroleum products; marketing of crude oil and refined products primarily under the Chevron, Texaco, and Caltex brand names; transportation of crude oil and refined products by pipeline, marine vessel, motor equipment, and rail car; and manufacture and marketing of commodity petrochemicals, plastics for industrial uses, and fuel and lubricant additives. It a lso produces and markets coal and molybdenum; and holds interests in 13 power assets with a total operating capacity of approximately 3,100 megawatts, as well as involves in cash management and debt financing activities, insurance operations, real estate activities, energy services, and alternative fuels and technology business. Chevron Corporation has a joint venture agreement with China National Petroleum Corporation. The company was formerly known as ChevronTexaco Corp. and changed its name to Chevron Corporation in May 2005. Chevron Corporation was founded in 1879 and is based in San Ramon, California.

Advisors' Opinion:
  • [By Dan Caplinger]

    Lately, energy stocks have made a nice comeback. After lagging the Dow for the first half of 2013, both ExxonMobil (NYSE: XOM  ) and Chevron (NYSE: CVX  ) have started out July on the right foot, with Exxon hitting a new five-year high today and Chevron approaching its own all-time record-high share price.

  • [By Inyoung Hwang]

    Technology, energy and material stocks advanced the most out of 10 S&P 500 groups as investors bought shares of companies most tied to economic growth. Chevron Corp. (CVX), the world�� third- biggest energy company by market value, increased 2.9 percent to $123.49. Alcoa Inc., the largest U.S. aluminum producer, added 4.2 percent to $8.62. The S&P GSCI gauge of 24 commodities jumped 1.4 percent for the second week of gains.

Saturday, October 12, 2013

Stocks Advance as Deal to End Shutdown, Avert Default Nears

Wall Street (Trader Jeffrey Vazquez works on the floor of the New York Stock Exchange Friday, Oct. 11, 2013. Stocks were inchingRichard Drew/AP Stocks rose again Friday, extending the Thursday's rally, as investors bet that the partial government shutdown and the battle over a looming U.S. default would finally be settled. The Dow Jones industrial average (^DJI) gained 111 points, or 0.7 percent, to 15,237, the Standard & Poor's 500 index (^GPSC) rose 10 points, or 0.6 percent, to 1,703, and the Nasdaq composite index (^IXIC) rose 31 points, or 0.8 percent, to 3,791. One motivation for investors Friday was the chance an agreement could come over the weekend, when the Senate is expected to vote on extending the federal borrowing limit through January 2015. Energy stocks led the S&P 500 up after the Environmental Protection Agency proposed lowering the required amount of ethanol to be blended into U.S. gasoline after Thursday's market close. Tesoro (TSO) led the sector, rising 3.8 percent to $45.18 despite a report Thursday from Reuters that a Tesoro pipeline spilled more than 20,000 barrels of crude oil onto a North Dakota farm. In economic news, the University of Michigan index of consumer sentiment fell in October to its weakest in nine months and was below expectations. In commodities trading, benchmark crude for November delivery fell $1.12 or 1 percent to $101.89, while gold, a popular choice for some investors during times of uncertainty, fell $28.70, or 2.2 percent, to $1,268.20 an ounce Friday. That's gold's lowest price since late July.

Friday, October 11, 2013

Is Chesapeake Energy Due to Drop?

While Fools should generally take the opinion of Wall Street with a grain of salt, it's not a bad idea to take a look at particularly stock-shaking analyst upgrades and downgrades -- just in case their reasoning behind the call makes sense.

What: Shares of Chesapeake Energy (NYSE: CHK  ) sank 1% in early Friday trading after Stifel downgraded the natural gas and oil producer from buy to hold.

So what: Along with the downgrade, analyst Amir Arif removed his price target on the stock of $26 -- about where it sits now -- suggesting he sees limited upside and possibly even significant downside. The stock has rallied nicely this year on strong efficiency improvements, but Arif thinks that it leaves current investors vulnerable for a pullback given Chesapeake's limited production growth prospects for 2014.

Now what: Stifel doesn't expect Chesapeake's continued cost improvements to wow Wall Street for much longer. "We believe that investors will begin to shift their investment focus from P/NAV discounts to EBITDA multiples and growth outlook for CHK and as that shift happens, this name looks fairly valued on an absolute basis and will relatively underperform its peers," noted Stifel. With Chesapeake shares up about 60% in 2013 and trading at an industry-matching EV/EBITDA multiple 6, I'd agree with Stifel that the current risk/reward trade-off looks unappealing. 

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